The market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 cluster tightly around 3.75% and 4.0%, capturing trader consensus on a gradual policy normalization path amid ongoing inflation moderation and resilient labor market data. Recent economic releases continue to show core inflation trending above the Fed’s 2% target while unemployment remains near historic lows, supporting expectations for measured rate adjustments rather than aggressive cuts. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation reports through year-end will likely refine these probabilities, as markets price in the balance between monetary policy easing and any reacceleration in price pressures. This distribution underscores the uncertainty in long-term rate expectations, with modest probabilities assigned to outcomes below 3.5% or above 4.25%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,75% 40.1%
4,0% 33.7%
3,5% 11.8%
4,25% 7.8%
$6,570,288 Объем
$6,570,288 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
<1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3,25%
5%
3,5%
12%
3,75%
40%
4,0%
34%
4,25%
8%
≥ 4,5%
3%
3,75% 40.1%
4,0% 33.7%
3,5% 11.8%
4,25% 7.8%
$6,570,288 Объем
$6,570,288 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
≤1,0%
$217,533 Объем
<1%
1,25
$135,915 Объем
<1%
1,5%
$139,917 Объем
<1%
1,75%
$136,857 Объем
<1%
2,0%
$252,493 Объем
<1%
2,25%
$75,614 Объем
<1%
2,5%
$164,364 Объем
1%
2,75%
$46,921 Объем
1%
3,0%
$456,312 Объем
4%
3,25%
$52,993 Объем
5%
3,5%
$194,860 Объем
12%
3,75%
$520,964 Объем
40%
4,0%
$1,360,851 Объем
34%
4,25%
$416,131 Объем
8%
≥ 4,5%
$2,398,563 Объем
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 cluster tightly around 3.75% and 4.0%, capturing trader consensus on a gradual policy normalization path amid ongoing inflation moderation and resilient labor market data. Recent economic releases continue to show core inflation trending above the Fed’s 2% target while unemployment remains near historic lows, supporting expectations for measured rate adjustments rather than aggressive cuts. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation reports through year-end will likely refine these probabilities, as markets price in the balance between monetary policy easing and any reacceleration in price pressures. This distribution underscores the uncertainty in long-term rate expectations, with modest probabilities assigned to outcomes below 3.5% or above 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Объем
$6,570,288Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 cluster tightly around 3.75% and 4.0%, capturing trader consensus on a gradual policy normalization path amid ongoing inflation moderation and resilient labor market data. Recent economic releases continue to show core inflation trending above the Fed’s 2% target while unemployment remains near historic lows, supporting expectations for measured rate adjustments rather than aggressive cuts. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation reports through year-end will likely refine these probabilities, as markets price in the balance between monetary policy easing and any reacceleration in price pressures. This distribution underscores the uncertainty in long-term rate expectations, with modest probabilities assigned to outcomes below 3.5% or above 4.25%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$6,570,288Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied odds for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 cluster tightly around 3.75% and 4.0%, capturing trader consensus on a gradual policy normalization path amid ongoing inflation moderation and resilient labor market data. Recent economic releases continue to show core inflation trending above the Fed’s 2% target while unemployment remains near historic lows, supporting expectations for measured rate adjustments rather than aggressive cuts. Key upcoming FOMC meetings and inflation reports through year-end will likely refine these probabilities, as markets price in the balance between monetary policy easing and any reacceleration in price pressures. This distribution underscores the uncertainty in long-term rate expectations, with modest probabilities assigned to outcomes below 3.5% or above 4.25%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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