Polymarket traders, committing real capital, price a razor-thin contest for the Fed funds rate at end-2026, with 3.75% (32.8% implied probability) edging 3.5% (25.0%) and 3.25% (15.5%), mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% amid a hawkish shift toward fewer cuts. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range steady, effective rate at 3.64%, as sticky core PCE inflation near 3% offset February's weak nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000—blamed on weather and strikes—with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Powell highlighted stalled disinflation, tempering cut expectations despite softening labor signals. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) and April FOMC, where sustained inflation above 2% could preserve the no-cut 3.75% consensus, while further job weakness might tip toward 3.25%-3.50%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено3,75% 32.8%
3,5% 25%
3,25% 16%
4,0% 10.5%
$4,768,997 Объем
$4,768,997 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
1%
2,25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
6%
3,0%
5%
3,25%
16%
3,5%
25%
3,75%
33%
4,0%
10%
4,25%
2%
≥ 4,5%
3%
3,75% 32.8%
3,5% 25%
3,25% 16%
4,0% 10.5%
$4,768,997 Объем
$4,768,997 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$191,138 Объем
1%
1,25
$95,494 Объем
1%
1,5%
$108,059 Объем
<1%
1,75%
$93,138 Объем
<1%
2,0%
$94,001 Объем
1%
2,25%
$56,173 Объем
1%
2,5%
$83,260 Объем
1%
2,75%
$23,224 Объем
6%
3,0%
$299,082 Объем
5%
3,25%
$36,850 Объем
16%
3,5%
$55,535 Объем
25%
3,75%
$352,029 Объем
33%
4,0%
$1,340,131 Объем
10%
4,25%
$399,939 Объем
2%
≥ 4,5%
$1,541,198 Объем
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, committing real capital, price a razor-thin contest for the Fed funds rate at end-2026, with 3.75% (32.8% implied probability) edging 3.5% (25.0%) and 3.25% (15.5%), mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% amid a hawkish shift toward fewer cuts. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range steady, effective rate at 3.64%, as sticky core PCE inflation near 3% offset February's weak nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000—blamed on weather and strikes—with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Powell highlighted stalled disinflation, tempering cut expectations despite softening labor signals. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) and April FOMC, where sustained inflation above 2% could preserve the no-cut 3.75% consensus, while further job weakness might tip toward 3.25%-3.50%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Объем
$4,768,997Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders, committing real capital, price a razor-thin contest for the Fed funds rate at end-2026, with 3.75% (32.8% implied probability) edging 3.5% (25.0%) and 3.25% (15.5%), mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% amid a hawkish shift toward fewer cuts. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range steady, effective rate at 3.64%, as sticky core PCE inflation near 3% offset February's weak nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000—blamed on weather and strikes—with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Powell highlighted stalled disinflation, tempering cut expectations despite softening labor signals. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) and April FOMC, where sustained inflation above 2% could preserve the no-cut 3.75% consensus, while further job weakness might tip toward 3.25%-3.50%.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Объем
$4,768,997Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, committing real capital, price a razor-thin contest for the Fed funds rate at end-2026, with 3.75% (32.8% implied probability) edging 3.5% (25.0%) and 3.25% (15.5%), mirroring the March 18 FOMC dot plot's median projection of 3.4% amid a hawkish shift toward fewer cuts. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range steady, effective rate at 3.64%, as sticky core PCE inflation near 3% offset February's weak nonfarm payrolls decline of 92,000—blamed on weather and strikes—with unemployment steady at 4.4%. Powell highlighted stalled disinflation, tempering cut expectations despite softening labor signals. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) and April FOMC, where sustained inflation above 2% could preserve the no-cut 3.75% consensus, while further job weakness might tip toward 3.25%-3.50%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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