Polymarket's trader consensus prices a razor-thin split between zero (34.6%) and one (29.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, reflecting heated debate over inflation persistence amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year, propelled by a 10.9% energy spike and 21.2% gasoline jump from oil shocks, overshadowing the Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median of one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolstered no-cut positioning, while FOMC minutes hinted at hike risks if pressures endure. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the pivotal catalyst, with futures implying steady rates near-term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 34.7%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 30%
2 (50 б.п.) 19%
3 (75 б.п.) 7%
$19,615,189 Объем
$19,615,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
35%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
30%
2 (50 б.п.)
19%
3 (75 б.п.)
7%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
4%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 бпс) 34.7%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 30%
2 (50 б.п.) 19%
3 (75 б.п.) 7%
$19,615,189 Объем
$19,615,189 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$3,261,277 Объем
35%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,050,313 Объем
30%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,031,198 Объем
19%
3 (75 б.п.)
$949,097 Объем
7%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$978,069 Объем
4%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,085,689 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,124,339 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$955,711 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,243,956 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$1,250,344 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$1,740,471 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$2,096,900 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$1,848,071 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a razor-thin split between zero (34.6%) and one (29.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, reflecting heated debate over inflation persistence amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year, propelled by a 10.9% energy spike and 21.2% gasoline jump from oil shocks, overshadowing the Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median of one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolstered no-cut positioning, while FOMC minutes hinted at hike risks if pressures endure. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the pivotal catalyst, with futures implying steady rates near-term.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$19,615,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket's trader consensus prices a razor-thin split between zero (34.6%) and one (29.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, reflecting heated debate over inflation persistence amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year, propelled by a 10.9% energy spike and 21.2% gasoline jump from oil shocks, overshadowing the Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median of one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolstered no-cut positioning, while FOMC minutes hinted at hike risks if pressures endure. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the pivotal catalyst, with futures implying steady rates near-term.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$19,615,189Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a razor-thin split between zero (34.6%) and one (29.5%) 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in 2026, reflecting heated debate over inflation persistence amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year, propelled by a 10.9% energy spike and 21.2% gasoline jump from oil shocks, overshadowing the Federal Open Market Committee's March dot plot median of one cut from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range. Robust March nonfarm payrolls of +178,000 and steady 4.3% unemployment bolstered no-cut positioning, while FOMC minutes hinted at hike risks if pressures endure. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the pivotal catalyst, with futures implying steady rates near-term.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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