Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the 69.3% implied probability on zero cuts reflecting a shift away from earlier easing expectations. Resilient labor market data, including April job gains above forecasts and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through April meetings. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI readings and reaccelerating core PCE have widened the gap between market-implied odds and the Fed’s median dot-plot projection of one cut, as analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs now favor holding policy steady or delaying easing into 2027. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and employment releases, will test whether these factors sustain the current pricing or open room for modest adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0 (0 бпс) 69.3%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 18%
2 (50 б.п.) 8%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$28,445,151 Объем
$28,445,151 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
69%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
18%
2 (50 б.п.)
8%
3 (75 б.п.)
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
<1%
0 (0 бпс) 69.3%
1 (25 базисных пунктов) 18%
2 (50 б.п.) 8%
3 (75 б.п.) 3.0%
$28,445,151 Объем
$28,445,151 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0 (0 бпс)
$4,361,735 Объем
69%
1 (25 базисных пунктов)
$1,274,031 Объем
18%
2 (50 б.п.)
$1,243,065 Объем
8%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,150,801 Объем
3%
4 (100 базисных пунктов)
$1,235,775 Объем
1%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,458,989 Объем
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,591,806 Объем
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,681,335 Объем
<1%
8 (200 базисных пунктов)
$1,821,420 Объем
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,626,803 Объем
<1%
10 (250 базисных пунктов)
$3,362,566 Объем
<1%
11 (275 б.п.)
$3,358,822 Объем
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,280,834 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the 69.3% implied probability on zero cuts reflecting a shift away from earlier easing expectations. Resilient labor market data, including April job gains above forecasts and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through April meetings. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI readings and reaccelerating core PCE have widened the gap between market-implied odds and the Fed’s median dot-plot projection of one cut, as analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs now favor holding policy steady or delaying easing into 2027. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and employment releases, will test whether these factors sustain the current pricing or open room for modest adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Открытие рынка: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$28,445,151Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the 69.3% implied probability on zero cuts reflecting a shift away from earlier easing expectations. Resilient labor market data, including April job gains above forecasts and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through April meetings. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI readings and reaccelerating core PCE have widened the gap between market-implied odds and the Fed’s median dot-plot projection of one cut, as analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs now favor holding policy steady or delaying easing into 2027. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and employment releases, will test whether these factors sustain the current pricing or open room for modest adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$28,445,151Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures from surging energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the 69.3% implied probability on zero cuts reflecting a shift away from earlier easing expectations. Resilient labor market data, including April job gains above forecasts and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have reinforced the Fed’s wait-and-see stance at the 3.50%-3.75% target range maintained through April meetings. Recent hotter-than-expected CPI readings and reaccelerating core PCE have widened the gap between market-implied odds and the Fed’s median dot-plot projection of one cut, as analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs now favor holding policy steady or delaying easing into 2027. Upcoming June and July FOMC meetings, alongside fresh inflation and employment releases, will test whether these factors sustain the current pricing or open room for modest adjustments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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