Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects diminished near-term Fed rate cut expectations, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and PCE at 3.5%, both exceeding forecasts and signaling persistent price pressures above the 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its April 28-29 meeting amid internal dissent on easing bias, with CME FedWatch Tool implying a 96% probability of no change at the June 16-17 session and 73% odds of no cuts through 2026. Solid labor market readings, like March nonfarm payrolls at 178,000, further support a cautious policy stance. Key catalysts ahead include tomorrow's April jobs report and May 12 CPI release, which could shift market-implied rate paths if softer than anticipated.