Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—alongside firm labor market readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Energy costs jumped sharply amid Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation higher while core measures also edged up to 2.8%. Market-implied odds near 97.5% for three consecutive pauses reflect this data-dependent consensus, reinforced by the central bank’s wait-and-see approach and limited scope for easing given inflation’s trajectory. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and employment report on June 5, which could shift pricing if outcomes deviate materially from forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 97.5%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.1%
Другое <1%
$1,231,943 Объем
$1,231,943 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
2%
Другое
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 97.5%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.1%
Другое <1%
$1,231,943 Объем
$1,231,943 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$132,942 Объем
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$81,667 Объем
2%
Другое
$271,992 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—alongside firm labor market readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Energy costs jumped sharply amid Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation higher while core measures also edged up to 2.8%. Market-implied odds near 97.5% for three consecutive pauses reflect this data-dependent consensus, reinforced by the central bank’s wait-and-see approach and limited scope for easing given inflation’s trajectory. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and employment report on June 5, which could shift pricing if outcomes deviate materially from forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,231,943Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—alongside firm labor market readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Energy costs jumped sharply amid Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation higher while core measures also edged up to 2.8%. Market-implied odds near 97.5% for three consecutive pauses reflect this data-dependent consensus, reinforced by the central bank’s wait-and-see approach and limited scope for easing given inflation’s trajectory. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and employment report on June 5, which could shift pricing if outcomes deviate materially from forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,231,943Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—alongside firm labor market readings have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range through the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. Energy costs jumped sharply amid Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation higher while core measures also edged up to 2.8%. Market-implied odds near 97.5% for three consecutive pauses reflect this data-dependent consensus, reinforced by the central bank’s wait-and-see approach and limited scope for easing given inflation’s trajectory. Key near-term catalysts include the May CPI release on June 10 and employment report on June 5, which could shift pricing if outcomes deviate materially from forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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