Elevated inflation pressures stemming from rising oil prices amid Middle East developments have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% through the March and April FOMC meetings, driving Polymarket's 97.5% implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through June. Recent statements highlight the committee's data-dependent stance, with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE readings above the 2% target outweighing any easing signals despite internal dissent at the latest gathering. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut in the near term. A sharp moderation in energy-driven price pressures or unexpected labor market softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting could introduce volatility, though current indicators point to continuity in the wait-and-see approach.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 97.4%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.3%
Другое <1%
$1,230,838 Объем
$1,230,838 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
2%
Другое
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 97.4%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.3%
Другое <1%
$1,230,838 Объем
$1,230,838 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$132,940 Объем
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$80,567 Объем
2%
Другое
$271,992 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from rising oil prices amid Middle East developments have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% through the March and April FOMC meetings, driving Polymarket's 97.5% implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through June. Recent statements highlight the committee's data-dependent stance, with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE readings above the 2% target outweighing any easing signals despite internal dissent at the latest gathering. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut in the near term. A sharp moderation in energy-driven price pressures or unexpected labor market softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting could introduce volatility, though current indicators point to continuity in the wait-and-see approach.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,230,838Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from rising oil prices amid Middle East developments have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% through the March and April FOMC meetings, driving Polymarket's 97.5% implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through June. Recent statements highlight the committee's data-dependent stance, with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE readings above the 2% target outweighing any easing signals despite internal dissent at the latest gathering. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut in the near term. A sharp moderation in energy-driven price pressures or unexpected labor market softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting could introduce volatility, though current indicators point to continuity in the wait-and-see approach.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,230,838Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures stemming from rising oil prices amid Middle East developments have anchored the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% through the March and April FOMC meetings, driving Polymarket's 97.5% implied probability for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome through June. Recent statements highlight the committee's data-dependent stance, with resilient labor market conditions and core PCE readings above the 2% target outweighing any easing signals despite internal dissent at the latest gathering. This positioning aligns with futures markets showing negligible odds of a 25-basis-point cut in the near term. A sharp moderation in energy-driven price pressures or unexpected labor market softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting could introduce volatility, though current indicators point to continuity in the wait-and-see approach.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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