Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation and resilient labor markets. The robust March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs versus expectations of 59,000 and lowering unemployment to 4.3%, has diminished near-term rate-cut urgency, while February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite oil-price shocks from geopolitical tensions, bolstering pause expectations. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 86%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 9%
Другое 5.8%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение 1.4%
$720,586 Объем
$720,586 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
86%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
9%
Другое
6%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
<1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 86%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 9%
Другое 5.8%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение 1.4%
$720,586 Объем
$720,586 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$22,101 Объем
86%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$11,282 Объем
9%
Другое
$211,071 Объем
6%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
$345,755 Объем
1%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
$130,376 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation and resilient labor markets. The robust March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs versus expectations of 59,000 and lowering unemployment to 4.3%, has diminished near-term rate-cut urgency, while February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite oil-price shocks from geopolitical tensions, bolstering pause expectations. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$720,586Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation and resilient labor markets. The robust March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs versus expectations of 59,000 and lowering unemployment to 4.3%, has diminished near-term rate-cut urgency, while February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite oil-price shocks from geopolitical tensions, bolstering pause expectations. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$720,586Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable inflation and resilient labor markets. The robust March nonfarm payrolls report, adding 178,000 jobs versus expectations of 59,000 and lowering unemployment to 4.3%, has diminished near-term rate-cut urgency, while February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks affirmed rates are in a "good place" despite oil-price shocks from geopolitical tensions, bolstering pause expectations. Key catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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