Recent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 97.4%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.3%
Другое <1%
$1,230,841 Объем
$1,230,841 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
2%
Другое
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 97.4%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 2.3%
Другое <1%
$1,230,841 Объем
$1,230,841 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$132,940 Объем
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$80,567 Объем
2%
Другое
$271,992 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,230,841Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,230,841Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation data, including the April 2026 CPI print at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—alongside a stable labor market and elevated oil prices tied to Middle East developments, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% across the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The March dot plot reinforced this path with broad consensus for rates in the 3.25%-3.75% zone through year-end, while futures markets assign negligible odds to near-term easing or tightening. Key upcoming releases—the June 5 employment report and June 10 CPI—could introduce volatility if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts, though current readings support the market-implied 97.5% probability of three consecutive pauses.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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