Trader sentiment on peak 10-year Treasury yields by March 31 reflects persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark yield recently climbing above 4.30%—up over 40 basis points from January lows. January CPI data showed core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts, while strong nonfarm payrolls and GDP growth signals have steepened the Treasury yield curve, implying a higher-for-longer Fed funds rate path around 4.25–4.50%. Market-implied odds via futures now price just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, down from earlier projections. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI release and the March 18–19 FOMC meeting, where dot-plot updates could either validate the rally or trigger a reversal if disinflation resumes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНасколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций к 31 марта?
Насколько высокой будет доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций к 31 марта?
$207,450 Объем
4,4%
50%
4,5%
5%
4,6%
4%
4,8%
2%
5,0%
2%
$207,450 Объем
4,4%
50%
4,5%
5%
4,6%
4%
4,8%
2%
5,0%
2%
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Dec 9, 2025, 2:17 PM ET
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0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on peak 10-year Treasury yields by March 31 reflects persistent inflation pressures and a resilient U.S. economy curbing Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, with the benchmark yield recently climbing above 4.30%—up over 40 basis points from January lows. January CPI data showed core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts, while strong nonfarm payrolls and GDP growth signals have steepened the Treasury yield curve, implying a higher-for-longer Fed funds rate path around 4.25–4.50%. Market-implied odds via futures now price just two 25-basis-point cuts in 2025, down from earlier projections. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI release and the March 18–19 FOMC meeting, where dot-plot updates could either validate the rally or trigger a reversal if disinflation resumes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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