Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.4% implied probability to "No" for the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's deep institutional entrenchment since 1913 and the complete absence of legislative momentum or political viability for dissolution. No bills have progressed in Congress, and recent discourse—including President-elect Trump's criticisms of Fed Chair Powell—centers on operational tweaks like potential rate cuts or leadership changes, not structural elimination. The U.S. economy's dependence on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy for stability reinforces this skin-in-the-game positioning, with no notable developments in the past 30 days altering trader sentiment. Tail risks hinge on an extreme populist shift yielding Congressional supermajorities post-2026 midterms, though historical base rates for such reforms remain negligible.