Polymarket traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to "No" on the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, driven by the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy and the absence of viable legislative momentum. Fringe bills like H.R.1846 and S.869 in the 119th Congress (2025-2026) propose repeal of the Federal Reserve Act but languish without committee hearings, bipartisan support, or endorsement from key figures, echoing historical failures of similar efforts. Recent Trump administration actions emphasize Fed chair transitions—Powell's term ends May 2026—and enhanced oversight rather than elimination, amid consensus on massive economic disruption from dissolution. Realistic challenges include a severe fiscal crisis sparking populist reforms or post-2026 midterm shifts, though constitutional barriers and Treasury yield volatility would likely temper such moves.