**Recent U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt have shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50–3.75%.** August nonfarm payrolls rose a moderate 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed +0.1% month-over-month and +3.4% year-over-year, keeping inflation above the 2% goal. These readings, alongside earlier 2026 dot-plot shifts showing more officials open to rate increases, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. The very low probabilities attached to cuts reflect limited downside risks in the latest labor and price data. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent employment figures will provide the next key inputs into the policy reaction function priced by traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в октябре?
Решение ФРС в октябре?
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 31%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$1,389,668 Объем
$1,389,668 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
3%
Без изменений
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
31%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 31%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$1,389,668 Объем
$1,389,668 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$232,498 Объем
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$531,252 Объем
3%
Без изменений
$220,989 Объем
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$249,537 Объем
31%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$155,393 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt have shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50–3.75%.** August nonfarm payrolls rose a moderate 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed +0.1% month-over-month and +3.4% year-over-year, keeping inflation above the 2% goal. These readings, alongside earlier 2026 dot-plot shifts showing more officials open to rate increases, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. The very low probabilities attached to cuts reflect limited downside risks in the latest labor and price data. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent employment figures will provide the next key inputs into the policy reaction function priced by traders.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$1,389,668Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt have shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50–3.75%.** August nonfarm payrolls rose a moderate 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed +0.1% month-over-month and +3.4% year-over-year, keeping inflation above the 2% goal. These readings, alongside earlier 2026 dot-plot shifts showing more officials open to rate increases, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. The very low probabilities attached to cuts reflect limited downside risks in the latest labor and price data. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent employment figures will provide the next key inputs into the policy reaction function priced by traders.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$1,389,668Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt have shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50–3.75%.** August nonfarm payrolls rose a moderate 162,000 while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and July CPI printed +0.1% month-over-month and +3.4% year-over-year, keeping inflation above the 2% goal. These readings, alongside earlier 2026 dot-plot shifts showing more officials open to rate increases, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change and the 30.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. The very low probabilities attached to cuts reflect limited downside risks in the latest labor and price data. The September 11 CPI release and subsequent employment figures will provide the next key inputs into the policy reaction function priced by traders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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