Traders see the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 nearly balanced at 50.5% against because the policy rate sits at 3.5-3.75% amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target while the labor market stays resilient. Recent FOMC minutes highlight anchored longer-term expectations yet note modest upward shifts in the market-implied path driven by Middle East tensions and hotter near-term price data. Market participants anticipate little net change through year-end, with futures pricing a possible hold or small hike late in 2026 versus earlier forecasts for cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, June inflation prints, and labor reports that could clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns and tip consensus toward tightening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,426,164 Объем
$1,426,164 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$1,426,164 Объем
$1,426,164 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 nearly balanced at 50.5% against because the policy rate sits at 3.5-3.75% amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target while the labor market stays resilient. Recent FOMC minutes highlight anchored longer-term expectations yet note modest upward shifts in the market-implied path driven by Middle East tensions and hotter near-term price data. Market participants anticipate little net change through year-end, with futures pricing a possible hold or small hike late in 2026 versus earlier forecasts for cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, June inflation prints, and labor reports that could clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns and tip consensus toward tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$1,426,164Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 nearly balanced at 50.5% against because the policy rate sits at 3.5-3.75% amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target while the labor market stays resilient. Recent FOMC minutes highlight anchored longer-term expectations yet note modest upward shifts in the market-implied path driven by Middle East tensions and hotter near-term price data. Market participants anticipate little net change through year-end, with futures pricing a possible hold or small hike late in 2026 versus earlier forecasts for cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, June inflation prints, and labor reports that could clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns and tip consensus toward tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$1,429,635Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 nearly balanced at 50.5% against because the policy rate sits at 3.5-3.75% amid inflation readings that remain above the 2% target while the labor market stays resilient. Recent FOMC minutes highlight anchored longer-term expectations yet note modest upward shifts in the market-implied path driven by Middle East tensions and hotter near-term price data. Market participants anticipate little net change through year-end, with futures pricing a possible hold or small hike late in 2026 versus earlier forecasts for cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, June inflation prints, and labor reports that could clarify whether persistent price pressures outweigh growth concerns and tip consensus toward tightening.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы