Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the December FOMC dot plot projecting fed funds at 4.1% by end-2025 and further to 3.4% by end-2026, signaling sustained easing amid disinflation. December CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year—above November's 2.7% but still cooling—while core PCE neared the 2% target, and December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs in a softening labor market. Fed Chair Powell reiterated data-dependent cuts if inflation progress holds, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.5% reflecting anchored rate expectations. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q4 GDP data could refine this dovish consensus, though resilient growth tempers aggressive cut bets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$642,827 Объем
$642,827 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
Да
$642,827 Объем
$642,827 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the December FOMC dot plot projecting fed funds at 4.1% by end-2025 and further to 3.4% by end-2026, signaling sustained easing amid disinflation. December CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year—above November's 2.7% but still cooling—while core PCE neared the 2% target, and December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs in a softening labor market. Fed Chair Powell reiterated data-dependent cuts if inflation progress holds, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.5% reflecting anchored rate expectations. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q4 GDP data could refine this dovish consensus, though resilient growth tempers aggressive cut bets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$642,827Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the December FOMC dot plot projecting fed funds at 4.1% by end-2025 and further to 3.4% by end-2026, signaling sustained easing amid disinflation. December CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year—above November's 2.7% but still cooling—while core PCE neared the 2% target, and December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs in a softening labor market. Fed Chair Powell reiterated data-dependent cuts if inflation progress holds, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.5% reflecting anchored rate expectations. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q4 GDP data could refine this dovish consensus, though resilient growth tempers aggressive cut bets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$642,827Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 74.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the December FOMC dot plot projecting fed funds at 4.1% by end-2025 and further to 3.4% by end-2026, signaling sustained easing amid disinflation. December CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year—above November's 2.7% but still cooling—while core PCE neared the 2% target, and December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs in a softening labor market. Fed Chair Powell reiterated data-dependent cuts if inflation progress holds, with 10-year Treasury yields near 4.5% reflecting anchored rate expectations. Upcoming January 29 FOMC and Q4 GDP data could refine this dovish consensus, though resilient growth tempers aggressive cut bets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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