Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the central bank's ongoing monetary easing amid disinflationary pressures. The December 2024 FOMC dot plot projected the fed funds rate declining to 3.4% by end-2026—well below current levels—bolstered by November CPI inflation easing to 2.7% year-over-year and PCE at 2.6%, alongside steady unemployment near 4.2%. Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data-dependent policy with no hawkish tilt, prioritizing a soft landing. Key near-term catalysts include the January 28-29 FOMC meeting and Q1 GDP/nonfarm payrolls, which could reinforce or modestly challenge this trader sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$595,094 Объем
$595,094 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
Да
$595,094 Объем
$595,094 Объем
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$595,094Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$595,094Дата окончания
Dec 9, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 77.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus around the central bank's ongoing monetary easing amid disinflationary pressures. The December 2024 FOMC dot plot projected the fed funds rate declining to 3.4% by end-2026—well below current levels—bolstered by November CPI inflation easing to 2.7% year-over-year and PCE at 2.6%, alongside steady unemployment near 4.2%. Chair Powell's recent comments emphasized data-dependent policy with no hawkish tilt, prioritizing a soft landing. Key near-term catalysts include the January 28-29 FOMC meeting and Q1 GDP/nonfarm payrolls, which could reinforce or modestly challenge this trader sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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