Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and its dot plot median projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in the year amid resilient GDP growth forecasts of 2.4%. Recent February nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4% have boosted modest 6.5% odds for a 25 bps cut, while sticky 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation—unchanged from January—curbs easing expectations, rendering hikes below 4% as tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April jobs data, with markets aligning closely to official guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в июне?
Решение ФРС в июне?
Без изменений 90%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 7%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 3.1%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$5,234,918 Объем
$5,234,918 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
7%
Без изменений
90%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
3%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 90%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 7%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 3.1%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$5,234,918 Объем
$5,234,918 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,531,652 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$721,953 Объем
7%
Без изменений
$1,086,842 Объем
90%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$1,027,917 Объем
3%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$866,554 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and its dot plot median projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in the year amid resilient GDP growth forecasts of 2.4%. Recent February nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4% have boosted modest 6.5% odds for a 25 bps cut, while sticky 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation—unchanged from January—curbs easing expectations, rendering hikes below 4% as tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April jobs data, with markets aligning closely to official guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Объем
$5,234,918Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and its dot plot median projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in the year amid resilient GDP growth forecasts of 2.4%. Recent February nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4% have boosted modest 6.5% odds for a 25 bps cut, while sticky 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation—unchanged from January—curbs easing expectations, rendering hikes below 4% as tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April jobs data, with markets aligning closely to official guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$5,234,918Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% and its dot plot median projecting just one 25 basis point cut later in the year amid resilient GDP growth forecasts of 2.4%. Recent February nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.4% have boosted modest 6.5% odds for a 25 bps cut, while sticky 2.4% year-over-year CPI inflation—unchanged from January—curbs easing expectations, rendering hikes below 4% as tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April jobs data, with markets aligning closely to official guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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