Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline CPI at 3.8% and core PCE reaccelerating, alongside a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchors the market-implied 92.5% probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, amid Middle East-driven oil price volatility and tariff-related price pressures, reinforced trader consensus for policy stasis through mid-year. Recent minutes and the March dot plot indicate participants anticipate at most one modest cut later in 2026, with options pricing a modest probability of hikes by early 2027. A sharper-than-expected labor market softening or decisive inflation moderation in upcoming data releases could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,491,995 Объем
$6,491,995 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,491,995 Объем
$6,491,995 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$713,738 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$630,571 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$822,864 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,576,557 Объем
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$748,274 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline CPI at 3.8% and core PCE reaccelerating, alongside a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchors the market-implied 92.5% probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, amid Middle East-driven oil price volatility and tariff-related price pressures, reinforced trader consensus for policy stasis through mid-year. Recent minutes and the March dot plot indicate participants anticipate at most one modest cut later in 2026, with options pricing a modest probability of hikes by early 2027. A sharper-than-expected labor market softening or decisive inflation moderation in upcoming data releases could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$6,491,995Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline CPI at 3.8% and core PCE reaccelerating, alongside a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchors the market-implied 92.5% probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, amid Middle East-driven oil price volatility and tariff-related price pressures, reinforced trader consensus for policy stasis through mid-year. Recent minutes and the March dot plot indicate participants anticipate at most one modest cut later in 2026, with options pricing a modest probability of hikes by early 2027. A sharper-than-expected labor market softening or decisive inflation moderation in upcoming data releases could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$6,491,995Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline CPI at 3.8% and core PCE reaccelerating, alongside a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment, anchors the market-implied 92.5% probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, amid Middle East-driven oil price volatility and tariff-related price pressures, reinforced trader consensus for policy stasis through mid-year. Recent minutes and the March dot plot indicate participants anticipate at most one modest cut later in 2026, with options pricing a modest probability of hikes by early 2027. A sharper-than-expected labor market softening or decisive inflation moderation in upcoming data releases could still alter the path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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