Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI report showing a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.8% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—amid persistent energy and core pressures. This builds on April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a balanced labor market that tempers rate-cut urgency following the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The wisdom of crowds reflects caution on sticky inflation versus official dot-plot projections for limited 2026 easing. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (June 10 release) or weakening June jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis-point cut odds now at 5.3%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 92%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.3%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 1.7%
$5,117,907 Объем
$5,117,907 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
5%
Без изменений
92%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 92%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 5.3%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 2.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. 1.7%
$5,117,907 Объем
$5,117,907 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$470,082 Объем
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$365,848 Объем
5%
Без изменений
$568,415 Объем
92%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,302,375 Объем
2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$411,186 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI report showing a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.8% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—amid persistent energy and core pressures. This builds on April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a balanced labor market that tempers rate-cut urgency following the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The wisdom of crowds reflects caution on sticky inflation versus official dot-plot projections for limited 2026 easing. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (June 10 release) or weakening June jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis-point cut odds now at 5.3%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$5,117,907Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI report showing a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.8% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—amid persistent energy and core pressures. This builds on April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a balanced labor market that tempers rate-cut urgency following the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The wisdom of crowds reflects caution on sticky inflation versus official dot-plot projections for limited 2026 easing. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (June 10 release) or weakening June jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis-point cut odds now at 5.3%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$5,117,907Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.5% implied probability of no change to the federal funds target range at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by today's hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI report showing a 0.6% monthly rise and 3.8% year-over-year acceleration—the highest since May 2023—amid persistent energy and core pressures. This builds on April's resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling a balanced labor market that tempers rate-cut urgency following the Fed's April hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The wisdom of crowds reflects caution on sticky inflation versus official dot-plot projections for limited 2026 easing. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI (June 10 release) or weakening June jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC, potentially reviving 25 basis-point cut odds now at 5.3%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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