The dominant 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting stems from persistently elevated inflation and a stable labor market that have reinforced the Fed’s hold stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year with core pressures reaccelerating amid energy price spikes, tariffs, and supply disruptions, while the unemployment rate held near 4.3% and job gains remained subdued. The April FOMC decision to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured notable dissent and highlighted these risks, aligning with derivatives pricing little movement through year-end. June data releases and the intervening meeting could still shift expectations if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or labor conditions weaken materially.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,487,536 Объем
$6,487,536 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,487,536 Объем
$6,487,536 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$712,911 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$628,300 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$822,025 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,576,133 Объем
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$748,167 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The dominant 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting stems from persistently elevated inflation and a stable labor market that have reinforced the Fed’s hold stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year with core pressures reaccelerating amid energy price spikes, tariffs, and supply disruptions, while the unemployment rate held near 4.3% and job gains remained subdued. The April FOMC decision to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured notable dissent and highlighted these risks, aligning with derivatives pricing little movement through year-end. June data releases and the intervening meeting could still shift expectations if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or labor conditions weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$6,487,536Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The dominant 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting stems from persistently elevated inflation and a stable labor market that have reinforced the Fed’s hold stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year with core pressures reaccelerating amid energy price spikes, tariffs, and supply disruptions, while the unemployment rate held near 4.3% and job gains remained subdued. The April FOMC decision to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured notable dissent and highlighted these risks, aligning with derivatives pricing little movement through year-end. June data releases and the intervening meeting could still shift expectations if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or labor conditions weaken materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$6,487,536Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting stems from persistently elevated inflation and a stable labor market that have reinforced the Fed’s hold stance. April 2026 CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year with core pressures reaccelerating amid energy price spikes, tariffs, and supply disruptions, while the unemployment rate held near 4.3% and job gains remained subdued. The April FOMC decision to leave the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% featured notable dissent and highlighted these risks, aligning with derivatives pricing little movement through year-end. June data releases and the intervening meeting could still shift expectations if inflation moderates faster than anticipated or labor conditions weaken materially.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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