Recent inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year driven by energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady payroll gains, have anchored market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting at 93.5 percent. Following the April hold at 3.50–3.75 percent and the March dot plot’s tighter near-term consensus, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point shift amid persistent core inflation above the 2 percent target. The upcoming June 16–17 meeting with fresh economic projections and data releases on prices and employment represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain this positioning, though an unexpected moderation in energy-driven price pressures or sharper labor market softening could still introduce modest volatility in the final weeks before July.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.4%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.2%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,092,730 Объем
$6,092,730 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.4%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.2%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$6,092,730 Объем
$6,092,730 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$640,749 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$524,487 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$741,659 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,508,937 Объем
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$677,970 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year driven by energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady payroll gains, have anchored market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting at 93.5 percent. Following the April hold at 3.50–3.75 percent and the March dot plot’s tighter near-term consensus, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point shift amid persistent core inflation above the 2 percent target. The upcoming June 16–17 meeting with fresh economic projections and data releases on prices and employment represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain this positioning, though an unexpected moderation in energy-driven price pressures or sharper labor market softening could still introduce modest volatility in the final weeks before July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$6,092,730Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year driven by energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady payroll gains, have anchored market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting at 93.5 percent. Following the April hold at 3.50–3.75 percent and the March dot plot’s tighter near-term consensus, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point shift amid persistent core inflation above the 2 percent target. The upcoming June 16–17 meeting with fresh economic projections and data releases on prices and employment represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain this positioning, though an unexpected moderation in energy-driven price pressures or sharper labor market softening could still introduce modest volatility in the final weeks before July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$6,092,730Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8 percent year-over-year driven by energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market featuring unemployment near 4.3 percent and steady payroll gains, have anchored market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting at 93.5 percent. Following the April hold at 3.50–3.75 percent and the March dot plot’s tighter near-term consensus, traders see limited scope for a 25 basis point shift amid persistent core inflation above the 2 percent target. The upcoming June 16–17 meeting with fresh economic projections and data releases on prices and employment represent the key near-term catalysts that could sustain this positioning, though an unexpected moderation in energy-driven price pressures or sharper labor market softening could still introduce modest volatility in the final weeks before July.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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