Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. With the federal funds target range already held at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting and futures markets pricing zero policy shifts for the remainder of 2026, recent labor-market resilience and elevated core readings at 2.8% have reinforced the case for steady rates. A clearer path to cuts would require cooler May CPI data or a significant de-escalation in oil prices ahead of the June dot plot, while unexpected inflation reacceleration could sustain the hold into late summer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$5,890,783 Объем
$5,890,783 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.5%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$5,890,783 Объем
$5,890,783 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$602,671 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$486,250 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$705,480 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,460,900 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$635,483 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. With the federal funds target range already held at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting and futures markets pricing zero policy shifts for the remainder of 2026, recent labor-market resilience and elevated core readings at 2.8% have reinforced the case for steady rates. A clearer path to cuts would require cooler May CPI data or a significant de-escalation in oil prices ahead of the June dot plot, while unexpected inflation reacceleration could sustain the hold into late summer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$5,890,783Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. With the federal funds target range already held at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting and futures markets pricing zero policy shifts for the remainder of 2026, recent labor-market resilience and elevated core readings at 2.8% have reinforced the case for steady rates. A clearer path to cuts would require cooler May CPI data or a significant de-escalation in oil prices ahead of the June dot plot, while unexpected inflation reacceleration could sustain the hold into late summer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$5,890,783Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting because April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp 17.9% rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. With the federal funds target range already held at 3.50%-3.75% through the April meeting and futures markets pricing zero policy shifts for the remainder of 2026, recent labor-market resilience and elevated core readings at 2.8% have reinforced the case for steady rates. A clearer path to cuts would require cooler May CPI data or a significant de-escalation in oil prices ahead of the June dot plot, while unexpected inflation reacceleration could sustain the hold into late summer.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы