Market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 76%, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation readings above the 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, have kept monetary policy on hold since the April meeting and shifted futures pricing away from earlier cut expectations. Recent economic data releases and forward-looking indicators continue to support this path, with limited room for easing unless core PCE or unemployment figures deteriorate materially. The June 16–17 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, represents the next key catalyst that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
16%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$120 Объем
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Объем
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Объем
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Объем
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$671 Объем
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Объем
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Объем
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Объем
4%
Other
$169 Объем
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 76%, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation readings above the 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, have kept monetary policy on hold since the April meeting and shifted futures pricing away from earlier cut expectations. Recent economic data releases and forward-looking indicators continue to support this path, with limited room for easing unless core PCE or unemployment figures deteriorate materially. The June 16–17 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, represents the next key catalyst that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,966Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 76%, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation readings above the 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, have kept monetary policy on hold since the April meeting and shifted futures pricing away from earlier cut expectations. Recent economic data releases and forward-looking indicators continue to support this path, with limited room for easing unless core PCE or unemployment figures deteriorate materially. The June 16–17 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, represents the next key catalyst that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,966Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 76%, reflecting trader consensus that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% target range. Persistent inflation readings above the 2% target, combined with a resilient labor market, have kept monetary policy on hold since the April meeting and shifted futures pricing away from earlier cut expectations. Recent economic data releases and forward-looking indicators continue to support this path, with limited room for easing unless core PCE or unemployment figures deteriorate materially. The June 16–17 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, represents the next key catalyst that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы