Recent FOMC communications and persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April meeting and minutes released May 20 highlighting uncertainty around the economic outlook, markets assign a 73.5% implied probability to pauses at the June, July, and September meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and incoming approach to communications further support the consensus for no near-term easing, as labor market resilience offsets any early disinflation signals. Upcoming June 16–17 and September 15–16 decisions, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 73%
Pause–Pause–Cut 9%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 4.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Pause–Pause–Cut 9%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 4.1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Объем
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Объем
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Объем
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$131 Объем
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Объем
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Объем
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Объем
4%
Other
$122 Объем
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April meeting and minutes released May 20 highlighting uncertainty around the economic outlook, markets assign a 73.5% implied probability to pauses at the June, July, and September meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and incoming approach to communications further support the consensus for no near-term easing, as labor market resilience offsets any early disinflation signals. Upcoming June 16–17 and September 15–16 decisions, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$1,455Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications and persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April meeting and minutes released May 20 highlighting uncertainty around the economic outlook, markets assign a 73.5% implied probability to pauses at the June, July, and September meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and incoming approach to communications further support the consensus for no near-term easing, as labor market resilience offsets any early disinflation signals. Upcoming June 16–17 and September 15–16 decisions, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,455Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and persistent inflation pressures from elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments have anchored trader expectations for steady policy. With the federal funds target range held at 3.50%–3.75% through the April meeting and minutes released May 20 highlighting uncertainty around the economic outlook, markets assign a 73.5% implied probability to pauses at the June, July, and September meetings. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s confirmation and incoming approach to communications further support the consensus for no near-term easing, as labor market resilience offsets any early disinflation signals. Upcoming June 16–17 and September 15–16 decisions, alongside fresh CPI and employment data, remain the key catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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