Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient economic data that have tempered rate-cut expectations. February's CPI printed at 2.8% year-over-year—above consensus—while core PCE remains elevated around 2.8%, underscoring insufficient progress toward the Fed's 2% target amid a strong labor market with unemployment at 4.1%. March FOMC communications reinforced a data-dependent stance, with Chair Powell emphasizing patience to avoid premature easing. A potential July cut trades at 19% odds, but upcoming March CPI and Q1 GDP releases could further solidify the pause narrative if inflation persists.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 58%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.6%
Cut–Pause–Pause
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
12%
Cut–Cut–Pause
12%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
63%
Pause–Pause–Cut
17%
Pause–Cut–Pause
13%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
17%
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Pause–Pause–Cut 14%
Other 7%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.6%
Cut–Pause–Pause
3%
Cut–Pause–Cut
12%
Cut–Cut–Pause
12%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
63%
Pause–Pause–Cut
17%
Pause–Cut–Pause
13%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
17%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its April, June, and July 2025 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient economic data that have tempered rate-cut expectations. February's CPI printed at 2.8% year-over-year—above consensus—while core PCE remains elevated around 2.8%, underscoring insufficient progress toward the Fed's 2% target amid a strong labor market with unemployment at 4.1%. March FOMC communications reinforced a data-dependent stance, with Chair Powell emphasizing patience to avoid premature easing. A potential July cut trades at 19% odds, but upcoming March CPI and Q1 GDP releases could further solidify the pause narrative if inflation persists.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы