Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. economy's resilience amid cooling inflation and a stable labor market. Recent October nonfarm payrolls added just 12,000 jobs—missing expectations—but unemployment held at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% monthly, and downward revisions to prior months totaled 48,000, signaling softening without recessionary distress. The Fed's gradual 50-basis-point September cut and projections for 100 basis points more in 2024 via scheduled FOMC meetings (next November 7) eliminate urgency for unscheduled action, absent acute shocks like 2008 or 2020 crises. Key catalysts include upcoming CPI data on November 13 and December FOMC, with historical precedent favoring "No" over the multi-year horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$64,514 Объем
$64,514 Объем
Да
$64,514 Объем
$64,514 Объем
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. economy's resilience amid cooling inflation and a stable labor market. Recent October nonfarm payrolls added just 12,000 jobs—missing expectations—but unemployment held at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% monthly, and downward revisions to prior months totaled 48,000, signaling softening without recessionary distress. The Fed's gradual 50-basis-point September cut and projections for 100 basis points more in 2024 via scheduled FOMC meetings (next November 7) eliminate urgency for unscheduled action, absent acute shocks like 2008 or 2020 crises. Key catalysts include upcoming CPI data on November 13 and December FOMC, with historical precedent favoring "No" over the multi-year horizon.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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