Trader consensus on 66% odds for tech layoffs rising in 2026 stems primarily from accelerating AI-driven restructuring, with companies like Microsoft and Intel announcing thousands of cuts in late 2025 to fund efficiency gains and pivot to generative AI models. Layoff trackers such as layoff.fyi report 2025 YTD totals surpassing 2024's 152,000 figure, amid persistent high interest rates squeezing venture funding and slowing SaaS growth. Macro headwinds, including potential Trump-era tariffs disrupting supply chains and H-1B visa curbs, amplify fears of prolonged cost-cutting over hiring rebounds. Key catalysts ahead include Q4 2025 earnings from Big Tech, where guidance on headcount could sway probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоТехнологические увольнения вверх или вниз в 2026?
Технологические увольнения вверх или вниз в 2026?
Увеличатся
Увеличатся
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on 66% odds for tech layoffs rising in 2026 stems primarily from accelerating AI-driven restructuring, with companies like Microsoft and Intel announcing thousands of cuts in late 2025 to fund efficiency gains and pivot to generative AI models. Layoff trackers such as layoff.fyi report 2025 YTD totals surpassing 2024's 152,000 figure, amid persistent high interest rates squeezing venture funding and slowing SaaS growth. Macro headwinds, including potential Trump-era tariffs disrupting supply chains and H-1B visa curbs, amplify fears of prolonged cost-cutting over hiring rebounds. Key catalysts ahead include Q4 2025 earnings from Big Tech, where guidance on headcount could sway probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы