Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 Thinking variants dominating Arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard as of May 12—with top-four Elo scores from 1502 to 1492, outpacing rivals in math, coding, and creative tasks. Recent releases like Claude Opus 4.7 have solidified its competitive edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, positioning it ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6, backing 27% odds) amid tight races. Traders expect OpenAI's GPT-5.5 or xAI's Grok to seize top-two spots via impending updates, while low odds for others reflect lagging leaderboard positions; watch for last-week announcements or Elo shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWhich company has the third best AI model end of May?
Which company has the third best AI model end of May?
Anthropic 59%
Google 30%
OpenAI 1.8%
xAI <1%
$86,088 Объем
$86,088 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Anthropic
68%
30%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 59%
Google 30%
OpenAI 1.8%
xAI <1%
$86,088 Объем
$86,088 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Anthropic
$13,862 Объем
68%
$8,596 Объем
30%
OpenAI
$6,912 Объем
2%
xAI
$7,343 Объем
1%
Baidu
$4,636 Объем
1%
Meta
$5,484 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$6,219 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$5,268 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$3,739 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$4,244 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$2,525 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,746 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$3,590 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$4,562 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 Thinking variants dominating Arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard as of May 12—with top-four Elo scores from 1502 to 1492, outpacing rivals in math, coding, and creative tasks. Recent releases like Claude Opus 4.7 have solidified its competitive edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, positioning it ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6, backing 27% odds) amid tight races. Traders expect OpenAI's GPT-5.5 or xAI's Grok to seize top-two spots via impending updates, while low odds for others reflect lagging leaderboard positions; watch for last-week announcements or Elo shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$86,088Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 Thinking variants dominating Arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard as of May 12—with top-four Elo scores from 1502 to 1492, outpacing rivals in math, coding, and creative tasks. Recent releases like Claude Opus 4.7 have solidified its competitive edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, positioning it ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6, backing 27% odds) amid tight races. Traders expect OpenAI's GPT-5.5 or xAI's Grok to seize top-two spots via impending updates, while low odds for others reflect lagging leaderboard positions; watch for last-week announcements or Elo shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$86,088Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68% implied probability to claim the third-best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7 and 4.6 Thinking variants dominating Arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard as of May 12—with top-four Elo scores from 1502 to 1492, outpacing rivals in math, coding, and creative tasks. Recent releases like Claude Opus 4.7 have solidified its competitive edge in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks, positioning it ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1490 Elo at #6, backing 27% odds) amid tight races. Traders expect OpenAI's GPT-5.5 or xAI's Grok to seize top-two spots via impending updates, while low odds for others reflect lagging leaderboard positions; watch for last-week announcements or Elo shifts before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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