Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at an 81.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which has dominated LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with multiple Claude variants occupying the top five spots. This sustained lead stems from superior reasoning, coding, and safety benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5—launched late April and updated May 5—which lingers around eighth place despite hype around personalization gains. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at roughly second (13.5% odds) amid anticipation for potential I/O announcements, but no confirmed breakthroughs have shifted the dynamics yet. With the resolution nearing, leaderboard stability and any late surprises will be pivotal for position managers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУ какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце мая?
У какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце мая?
Anthropic 82%
Google 14%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$6,018,695 Объем
$6,018,695 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Anthropic
82%
14%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 82%
Google 14%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$6,018,695 Объем
$6,018,695 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Anthropic
$466,042 Объем
82%
$359,178 Объем
14%
OpenAI
$557,468 Объем
3%
xAI
$430,377 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$330,401 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$435,283 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$415,101 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$298,411 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$380,284 Объем
<1%
Meta
$402,077 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$460,272 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$379,101 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$388,958 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$309,142 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$406,600 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at an 81.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which has dominated LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with multiple Claude variants occupying the top five spots. This sustained lead stems from superior reasoning, coding, and safety benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5—launched late April and updated May 5—which lingers around eighth place despite hype around personalization gains. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at roughly second (13.5% odds) amid anticipation for potential I/O announcements, but no confirmed breakthroughs have shifted the dynamics yet. With the resolution nearing, leaderboard stability and any late surprises will be pivotal for position managers.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Объем
$6,018,695Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at an 81.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which has dominated LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with multiple Claude variants occupying the top five spots. This sustained lead stems from superior reasoning, coding, and safety benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5—launched late April and updated May 5—which lingers around eighth place despite hype around personalization gains. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at roughly second (13.5% odds) amid anticipation for potential I/O announcements, but no confirmed breakthroughs have shifted the dynamics yet. With the resolution nearing, leaderboard stability and any late surprises will be pivotal for position managers.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$6,018,695Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at an 81.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release, which has dominated LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards with multiple Claude variants occupying the top five spots. This sustained lead stems from superior reasoning, coding, and safety benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.5—launched late April and updated May 5—which lingers around eighth place despite hype around personalization gains. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at roughly second (13.5% odds) amid anticipation for potential I/O announcements, but no confirmed breakthroughs have shifted the dynamics yet. With the resolution nearing, leaderboard stability and any late surprises will be pivotal for position managers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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