Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models dominate the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500 for its "thinking" variant and base, respectively, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1494 and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491, driving trader consensus to a 65% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best AI model by end of June. This lead stems from February's Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in agentic workflows, long-context reasoning, and coding benchmarks amid a March frenzy of 12 rival launches, yet maintained top positions through stable user battles. Enterprise preference for Claude's reliability over OpenAI's GPT-5.x (lagging below top five) bolsters sentiment, though Google's rapid iterations and potential pre-June developer conference reveals could narrow the gap in this closely watched large language model race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 25%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 1.6%
$2,969,629 Объем
$2,969,629 Объем

Anthropic
65%

25%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 65.0%
Google 25%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 1.6%
$2,969,629 Объем
$2,969,629 Объем

Anthropic
65%

25%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Alibaba
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models dominate the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with Elo ratings of 1504 and 1500 for its "thinking" variant and base, respectively, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview at 1494 and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at 1491, driving trader consensus to a 65% implied probability for Anthropic holding the best AI model by end of June. This lead stems from February's Opus 4.6 release, which excelled in agentic workflows, long-context reasoning, and coding benchmarks amid a March frenzy of 12 rival launches, yet maintained top positions through stable user battles. Enterprise preference for Claude's reliability over OpenAI's GPT-5.x (lagging below top five) bolsters sentiment, though Google's rapid iterations and potential pre-June developer conference reveals could narrow the gap in this closely watched large language model race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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