Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 57% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena leaderboards, where it claims the top two spots—excelling in complex reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations—following its February release and biweekly updates maintaining a multi-month lead. Google trails at 26% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong multimodal capabilities and 1M+ token context, bolstered by its late-February launch, but it sits just behind in overall Elo rankings. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants have slipped to mid-pack despite agentic gains, pricing it at 6.5%, while xAI's Grok 4.20 betas lag further; traders eye Q2 releases from labs amid rapid iteration cycles as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Какая компания имеет лучшую модель ИИ в конце июня?
Anthropic 57.2%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.5%
$2,952,034 Объем
$2,952,034 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
57%
26%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
4%
DeepSeek
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 57.2%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.5%
$2,952,034 Объем
$2,952,034 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$572,740 Объем
57%
$318,240 Объем
26%
OpenAI
$104,958 Объем
7%
xAI
$850,276 Объем
4%
DeepSeek
$232,038 Объем
2%
Alibaba
$114,297 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$174,439 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$295,877 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$127,377 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$161,793 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 57% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena leaderboards, where it claims the top two spots—excelling in complex reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations—following its February release and biweekly updates maintaining a multi-month lead. Google trails at 26% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong multimodal capabilities and 1M+ token context, bolstered by its late-February launch, but it sits just behind in overall Elo rankings. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants have slipped to mid-pack despite agentic gains, pricing it at 6.5%, while xAI's Grok 4.20 betas lag further; traders eye Q2 releases from labs amid rapid iteration cycles as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Объем
$2,952,034Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 57% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena leaderboards, where it claims the top two spots—excelling in complex reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations—following its February release and biweekly updates maintaining a multi-month lead. Google trails at 26% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong multimodal capabilities and 1M+ token context, bolstered by its late-February launch, but it sits just behind in overall Elo rankings. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants have slipped to mid-pack despite agentic gains, pricing it at 6.5%, while xAI's Grok 4.20 betas lag further; traders eye Q2 releases from labs amid rapid iteration cycles as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$2,952,034Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 57% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and LMArena leaderboards, where it claims the top two spots—excelling in complex reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations—following its February release and biweekly updates maintaining a multi-month lead. Google trails at 26% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong multimodal capabilities and 1M+ token context, bolstered by its late-February launch, but it sits just behind in overall Elo rankings. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants have slipped to mid-pack despite agentic gains, pricing it at 6.5%, while xAI's Grok 4.20 betas lag further; traders eye Q2 releases from labs amid rapid iteration cycles as key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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