Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with "No" at 96.2% implied probability for a human moon landing in 2026, anchored by NASA's Artemis III mission slipping repeatedly to no earlier than September 2026 amid SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) challenges. A June 2024 Government Accountability Office report flagged high risks of further delays due to unproven orbital refueling demos, in-space rendezvous, and lunar descent tech—capabilities yet to be flight-proven despite Starship's IFT-4 successes like the booster catch. No other nations have viable 2026 crewed lunar plans. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpectedly rapid Starship test progress enabling FAA certification acceleration or private initiatives, but technical setbacks, supply chain issues, or budget constraints maintain strong trader skepticism heading into fall flight tests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВысадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Высадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Да
$1,869,511 Объем
$1,869,511 Объем
Да
$1,869,511 Объем
$1,869,511 Объем
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with "No" at 96.2% implied probability for a human moon landing in 2026, anchored by NASA's Artemis III mission slipping repeatedly to no earlier than September 2026 amid SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) challenges. A June 2024 Government Accountability Office report flagged high risks of further delays due to unproven orbital refueling demos, in-space rendezvous, and lunar descent tech—capabilities yet to be flight-proven despite Starship's IFT-4 successes like the booster catch. No other nations have viable 2026 crewed lunar plans. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpectedly rapid Starship test progress enabling FAA certification acceleration or private initiatives, but technical setbacks, supply chain issues, or budget constraints maintain strong trader skepticism heading into fall flight tests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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