Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seattle's April precipitation, with the <2.5-inch outcome slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability amid tightly clustered odds across bins up to >5 inches, driven by NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicating equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall in the Pacific Northwest. Historical data shows Seattle's April average at 2.86 inches, but ENSO-neutral conditions following El Niño's fade promote typical variability without extreme drivers like persistent atmospheric rivers. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and Pacific storm track steering, with forecast models showing wide ensemble spreads; recent runs favor slightly drier scenarios due to high-pressure ridging potential. Watch for weekly NOAA updates and mid-month observational data as accumulation clarifies totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPrecipitation in Seattle in April?
Precipitation in Seattle in April?
<2.5" 34%
2.5-3" 29%
3-3.5" 29%
3.5-4" 29%
<2.5"
34%
2.5-3"
29%
3-3.5"
29%
3.5-4"
29%
4-4.5"
23%
4.5-5"
24%
>5"
25%
<2.5" 34%
2.5-3" 29%
3-3.5" 29%
3.5-4" 29%
<2.5"
34%
2.5-3"
29%
3-3.5"
29%
3.5-4"
29%
4-4.5"
23%
4.5-5"
24%
>5"
25%
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Seattle's April precipitation, with the <2.5-inch outcome slightly leading at 34.5% implied probability amid tightly clustered odds across bins up to >5 inches, driven by NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicating equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal rainfall in the Pacific Northwest. Historical data shows Seattle's April average at 2.86 inches, but ENSO-neutral conditions following El Niño's fade promote typical variability without extreme drivers like persistent atmospheric rivers. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning and Pacific storm track steering, with forecast models showing wide ensemble spreads; recent runs favor slightly drier scenarios due to high-pressure ridging potential. Watch for weekly NOAA updates and mid-month observational data as accumulation clarifies totals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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