Trader consensus clusters tightly around 16–20°C for Shanghai's March 26 high, reflecting latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions. Historical data shows March 26 mean highs near 16.5°C, with urban heat island effects often adding 1–2°C; current models differentiate via boundary layer forecasts—ECMWF's warmer 18–19°C bias from stronger southerly winds and solar insolation, versus GFS's cooler 16–17°C nod to lingering stratiform clouds post-cold front. Recent 00Z runs narrowed the spread slightly toward 18°C, but residual model uncertainty in afternoon convective mixing keeps odds balanced, with CMA local guidance anchoring conservatism at 16°C. Key watch: 12Z updates for intraday peak refinements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 21%
17°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
16%
16°C
28%
17°C
20%
18°C
27%
19°C
21%
20°C
19%
21°C
12%
22°C or higher
2%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
19°C 21%
17°C 20%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
16%
16°C
28%
17°C
20%
18°C
27%
19°C
21%
20°C
19%
21°C
12%
22°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 16–20°C for Shanghai's March 26 high, reflecting latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge fostering mild spring conditions. Historical data shows March 26 mean highs near 16.5°C, with urban heat island effects often adding 1–2°C; current models differentiate via boundary layer forecasts—ECMWF's warmer 18–19°C bias from stronger southerly winds and solar insolation, versus GFS's cooler 16–17°C nod to lingering stratiform clouds post-cold front. Recent 00Z runs narrowed the spread slightly toward 18°C, but residual model uncertainty in afternoon convective mixing keeps odds balanced, with CMA local guidance anchoring conservatism at 16°C. Key watch: 12Z updates for intraday peak refinements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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