Trader consensus tilts toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on March 22 (41% implied probability), edging out 25°C (32.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 25-27°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating these close outcomes hinges on subtle model divergences: ECMWF anticipates stronger solar insolation boosting 26-27°C, while GFS signals higher humidity potentially capping at 25°C, reflecting Shenzhen's subtropical climate where sea breezes modulate urban heat island effects. Historical China Meteorological Administration data shows March 22 averages at 24.8°C, but recent El Niño residuals have warmed late-March norms by ~1°C; 00Z updates tomorrow may refine this tight spread.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
26°C 41%
25°C 33%
27°C 14%
24°C 7.8%
$14,423 Объем
$14,423 Объем
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
33%
26°C
41%
27°C
14%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 41%
25°C 33%
27°C 14%
24°C 7.8%
$14,423 Объем
$14,423 Объем
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
33%
26°C
41%
27°C
14%
28°C
6%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on March 22 (41% implied probability), edging out 25°C (32.5%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 25-27°C amid mild southerly flows and partial cloud cover. Differentiating these close outcomes hinges on subtle model divergences: ECMWF anticipates stronger solar insolation boosting 26-27°C, while GFS signals higher humidity potentially capping at 25°C, reflecting Shenzhen's subtropical climate where sea breezes modulate urban heat island effects. Historical China Meteorological Administration data shows March 22 averages at 24.8°C, but recent El Niño residuals have warmed late-March norms by ~1°C; 00Z updates tomorrow may refine this tight spread.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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