Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 heavily favors 26–28°C, with 27°C leading at 39.5% implied probability, reflecting tight clustering in ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS that project peaks from weak southerly winds and lingering subtropical moisture. Recent observations show March averages of 25–26°C, nudged higher by urban heat island effects in the densely built city, but differentiated by model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at 26°C amid partial cloud cover, while GFS hints at 28°C if clearer skies prevail. Key upcoming catalyst is the China Meteorological Administration's 12Z update, which could shift odds if dew points rise above 20°C, amplifying convective heating over coastal terrain.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
27°C 40%
26°C 39%
28°C 22%
29°C 17%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C
34%
27°C
41%
28°C
22%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
14%
27°C 40%
26°C 39%
28°C 22%
29°C 17%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
5%
24°C
8%
25°C
8%
26°C
34%
27°C
41%
28°C
22%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 heavily favors 26–28°C, with 27°C leading at 39.5% implied probability, reflecting tight clustering in ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS that project peaks from weak southerly winds and lingering subtropical moisture. Recent observations show March averages of 25–26°C, nudged higher by urban heat island effects in the densely built city, but differentiated by model spread: ECMWF leans cooler at 26°C amid partial cloud cover, while GFS hints at 28°C if clearer skies prevail. Key upcoming catalyst is the China Meteorological Administration's 12Z update, which could shift odds if dew points rise above 20°C, amplifying convective heating over coastal terrain.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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