Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shanghai's March 25 high temperature at 16°C (33%) or 17°C (31%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mean maximum of 16.2–16.8°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing mild southerly flow after recent cool fronts. Differentiating these close outcomes hinges on subtle model divergences: ECMWF's drier scenario supports 17°C via enhanced solar insolation, while GFS emphasizes patchy clouds and urban heat island moderation capping at 16°C at the Pudong station. Historical March averages hover near 14°C, but above-normal soil moisture from prior rains adds downside risk; traders await 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 25?
16°C 33%
17°C 28%
15°C 16%
18°C 14%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
10%
15°C
16%
16°C
33%
17°C
28%
18°C
14%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 33%
17°C 28%
15°C 16%
18°C 14%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
10%
15°C
16%
16°C
33%
17°C
28%
18°C
14%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shanghai's March 25 high temperature at 16°C (33%) or 17°C (31%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mean maximum of 16.2–16.8°C under a high-pressure ridge bringing mild southerly flow after recent cool fronts. Differentiating these close outcomes hinges on subtle model divergences: ECMWF's drier scenario supports 17°C via enhanced solar insolation, while GFS emphasizes patchy clouds and urban heat island moderation capping at 16°C at the Pudong station. Historical March averages hover near 14°C, but above-normal soil moisture from prior rains adds downside risk; traders await 12Z updates for resolution clarity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы