Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (83% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a daytime high near 61°F at O'Hare International Airport amid persistent cloudy skies and northwest winds. Ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF reinforce this outlook, showing an upper-level trough locking cool Midwest air in place with little diurnal warming potential. Recent 12Z model runs held steady, showing no breakout to 64°F+, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover around 45°F but recent mild spells cap extremes. Traders note low volatility in short-range guidance, positioning sub-64°F as the resolution anchor despite minor 1-2°F forecast tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 88%
72-73°F 3.1%
74-75°F 3.0%
80-81°F 3.0%
63°F or below
83%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
2%
63°F or below 88%
72-73°F 3.1%
74-75°F 3.0%
80-81°F 3.0%
63°F or below
83%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
6%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment overwhelmingly favors a high temperature of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (83% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast projecting a daytime high near 61°F at O'Hare International Airport amid persistent cloudy skies and northwest winds. Ensemble models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF reinforce this outlook, showing an upper-level trough locking cool Midwest air in place with little diurnal warming potential. Recent 12Z model runs held steady, showing no breakout to 64°F+, aligning with March climatology where average highs hover around 45°F but recent mild spells cap extremes. Traders note low volatility in short-range guidance, positioning sub-64°F as the resolution anchor despite minor 1-2°F forecast tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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