Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble models, drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 15-19°C for Tokyo on March 22, with 17°C edging ahead at 21% implied probability amid tight clustering. This reflects a high-pressure ridge over the Sea of Japan funneling warmer southerly flow, overriding typical late-March averages of 13-14°C from 1991-2020 JMA records. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from an approaching weak front, which could cap peaks at 15-16°C, versus clearer skies boosting 18-19°C outcomes; historical volatility shows ±3°C spreads on similar setups. Traders eye today's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before evening rush.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 22?
17°C 18%
16°C 14%
15°C 11%
21°C or higher 11%
11°C or below
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
10%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
18%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
11%
17°C 18%
16°C 14%
15°C 11%
21°C or higher 11%
11°C or below
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
9%
14°C
10%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
18%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble models, drive trader consensus toward mild highs of 15-19°C for Tokyo on March 22, with 17°C edging ahead at 21% implied probability amid tight clustering. This reflects a high-pressure ridge over the Sea of Japan funneling warmer southerly flow, overriding typical late-March averages of 13-14°C from 1991-2020 JMA records. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from an approaching weak front, which could cap peaks at 15-16°C, versus clearer skies boosting 18-19°C outcomes; historical volatility shows ±3°C spreads on similar setups. Traders eye today's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts before evening rush.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы