Traders overwhelmingly back 15°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 22, with 42% implied probability, propelled by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering peaks at 14-16°C amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and above-seasonal warmth. Recent model updates from GFS and UKMO reinforce this, showing 95th-percentile highs below 17°C and minimal risk of cooler anomalies after a string of 12-14°C days. Historical March 22 averages near 12°C provide context, but current jet stream positioning and urban heat island effects in Paris tilt odds toward these leading outcomes, with traders pricing in low uncertainty barring unforeseen frontal passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on March 22?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 22?
15°C 43%
14°C 24%
16°C 22%
13°C 4.3%
$32,493 Объем
$32,493 Объем
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
24%
15°C
43%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
1%
15°C 43%
14°C 24%
16°C 22%
13°C 4.3%
$32,493 Объем
$32,493 Объем
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
24%
15°C
43%
16°C
22%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back 15°C as Paris's highest temperature on March 22, with 42% implied probability, propelled by the latest Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble forecasts clustering peaks at 14-16°C amid a mild Atlantic high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and above-seasonal warmth. Recent model updates from GFS and UKMO reinforce this, showing 95th-percentile highs below 17°C and minimal risk of cooler anomalies after a string of 12-14°C days. Historical March 22 averages near 12°C provide context, but current jet stream positioning and urban heat island effects in Paris tilt odds toward these leading outcomes, with traders pricing in low uncertainty barring unforeseen frontal passages.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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