Trader consensus favors a high of 6°C or higher in Toronto on March 21 at 47.5% implied probability, driven by lingering mild air from recent thaws and Lake Ontario's moderating influence, which historically boosts March highs to an average of 6°C. However, Environment Canada’s latest forecast points to 4°C amid a cool northerly flow and periods of snow from an incoming low-pressure system, elevating 4°C (10.5%) and 5°C (27%) as close contenders. Ensemble models like ECMWF show divergence, with about 45% odds for 5°C+, tempered by jet stream positioning; overnight updates indicate slight warming potential but persistent cloud cover risks capping peaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Торонто 21 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Торонто 21 марта?
6°C или выше 48%
5°C 28%
4°C 9%
3°C 7.3%
$107,081 Объем
$107,081 Объем
-4°C или ниже
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
4%
2°C
4%
3°C
7%
4°C
9%
5°C
28%
6°C или выше
48%
6°C или выше 48%
5°C 28%
4°C 9%
3°C 7.3%
$107,081 Объем
$107,081 Объем
-4°C или ниже
<1%
-3°C
1%
-2°C
1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
2%
1°C
4%
2°C
4%
3°C
7%
4°C
9%
5°C
28%
6°C или выше
48%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 6°C or higher in Toronto on March 21 at 47.5% implied probability, driven by lingering mild air from recent thaws and Lake Ontario's moderating influence, which historically boosts March highs to an average of 6°C. However, Environment Canada’s latest forecast points to 4°C amid a cool northerly flow and periods of snow from an incoming low-pressure system, elevating 4°C (10.5%) and 5°C (27%) as close contenders. Ensemble models like ECMWF show divergence, with about 45% odds for 5°C+, tempered by jet stream positioning; overnight updates indicate slight warming potential but persistent cloud cover risks capping peaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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