Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Toronto high near 6°C on March 19, driven by the latest Environment Canada forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 5-7°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with ensemble model averages from ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that range. This tight clustering reflects model spread from a weak upper-level ridge allowing mild southerly flow moderated by Lake Ontario's cooling effect, with historical March 19 highs averaging 5.8°C (1981-2010 normals). Differentiation hinges on subtle timing of diurnal heating versus potential afternoon cloud cover; if clearer skies prevail, 7°C+ odds rise, while increased mixing could cap at 5°C, underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Toronto on March 19?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 19?
6°C 30%
5°C 27%
7°C 22%
8°C or higher 9.8%
$16,603 Объем
$16,603 Объем
-2°C or below
<1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
2%
3°C
4%
4°C
10%
5°C
27%
6°C
30%
7°C
22%
8°C or higher
10%
6°C 30%
5°C 27%
7°C 22%
8°C or higher 9.8%
$16,603 Объем
$16,603 Объем
-2°C or below
<1%
-1°C
1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
2%
3°C
4%
4°C
10%
5°C
27%
6°C
30%
7°C
22%
8°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 15, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Toronto high near 6°C on March 19, driven by the latest Environment Canada forecast projecting a daytime maximum of 5-7°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with ensemble model averages from ECMWF and GFS showing peaks in that range. This tight clustering reflects model spread from a weak upper-level ridge allowing mild southerly flow moderated by Lake Ontario's cooling effect, with historical March 19 highs averaging 5.8°C (1981-2010 normals). Differentiation hinges on subtle timing of diurnal heating versus potential afternoon cloud cover; if clearer skies prevail, 7°C+ odds rise, while increased mixing could cap at 5°C, underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty as the date nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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