Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (30.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a peak around 19.5°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild Atlantic air. Recent model runs show reduced spread, with daytime solar insolation boosted by clear skies and light southerly winds enhancing boundary-layer warming, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could nudge readings higher. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud development risks lowering 20°C odds slightly, versus historical March norms of 16-18°C, while official AEMET observations from Retiro Park will resolve the market amid typical 1-2°C model biases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 18?
19°C 34%
20°C 30%
18°C 25%
21°C 7%
$12,655 Объем
$12,655 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
22%
19°C
34%
20°C
30%
21°C
7%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
2%
19°C 34%
20°C 30%
18°C 25%
21°C 7%
$12,655 Объем
$12,655 Объем
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
4%
18°C
22%
19°C
34%
20°C
30%
21°C
7%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 19°C (33.5%) and 20°C (30.0%) as Madrid's highest temperature on March 18, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a peak around 19.5°C amid a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild Atlantic air. Recent model runs show reduced spread, with daytime solar insolation boosted by clear skies and light southerly winds enhancing boundary-layer warming, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could nudge readings higher. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud development risks lowering 20°C odds slightly, versus historical March norms of 16-18°C, while official AEMET observations from Retiro Park will resolve the market amid typical 1-2°C model biases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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