Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Milan's highest temperature on March 21 exceeding 16°C, likely reaching 17-19°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly föhn winds, and above-average insolation for late March. This consensus aligns with ARPA Lombardia's local models and recent soundings showing dry air masses, elevating trader confidence to near-certainty (100% implied odds). Historical Milan March highs average 13-15°C, but analogous 2023-2024 spring patterns support the warm bias. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front intrusion or dense low-level clouds reducing solar heating, potentially capping peaks at 15°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current 90th-percentile model spreads.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Милане 21 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Милане 21 марта?
16°C или выше 100.0%
6°C или ниже <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$52,642 Объем
$52,642 Объем
6°C или ниже
Нет
7°C
Нет
8°C
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C или выше
Да
16°C или выше 100.0%
6°C или ниже <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$52,642 Объем
$52,642 Объем
6°C или ниже
Нет
7°C
Нет
8°C
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C или выше
Да
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Milan's highest temperature on March 21 exceeding 16°C, likely reaching 17-19°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, southerly föhn winds, and above-average insolation for late March. This consensus aligns with ARPA Lombardia's local models and recent soundings showing dry air masses, elevating trader confidence to near-certainty (100% implied odds). Historical Milan March highs average 13-15°C, but analogous 2023-2024 spring patterns support the warm bias. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front intrusion or dense low-level clouds reducing solar heating, potentially capping peaks at 15°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current 90th-percentile model spreads.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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