The National Weather Service's latest point forecast for Central Park—NYC's official temperature station—projects a high of 56°F on March 22, fueling trader preference for the 56-57°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, edging out 58-59°F (23%). Ensemble models like GEFS and ECMWF show a tight cluster in the mid-50s, with recent 12z GFS and Euro runs differentiating outcomes through nuanced cloud cover forecasts and weak southerly winds ahead of a passing frontal boundary, capping convective heating. Cool-season jet stream waviness adds uncertainty, but climatological norms (51°F average) and low dispersion in guidance favor these leading ranges over warmer outliers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 22 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Нью-Йорке 22 марта?
56-57°F 29%
58-59°F 23%
60-61°F 19%
54-55°F 10%
$150,455 Объем
$150,455 Объем
53°F или ниже
3%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
29%
58-59°F
23%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F или выше
<1%
56-57°F 29%
58-59°F 23%
60-61°F 19%
54-55°F 10%
$150,455 Объем
$150,455 Объем
53°F или ниже
3%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
29%
58-59°F
23%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest point forecast for Central Park—NYC's official temperature station—projects a high of 56°F on March 22, fueling trader preference for the 56-57°F bin at 28.5% implied probability, edging out 58-59°F (23%). Ensemble models like GEFS and ECMWF show a tight cluster in the mid-50s, with recent 12z GFS and Euro runs differentiating outcomes through nuanced cloud cover forecasts and weak southerly winds ahead of a passing frontal boundary, capping convective heating. Cool-season jet stream waviness adds uncertainty, but climatological norms (51°F average) and low dispersion in guidance favor these leading ranges over warmer outliers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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