Trader consensus favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 at 44% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 50-52°F under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this outlook, showing a shallow upper trough maintaining chilly mid-50s ceilings at best, tempered by diurnal mixing limited by coastal influences and lingering cloudiness. Historical data from Central Park indicates average March 23 highs around 52°F, with recent soundings confirming a stable cool air mass over the Northeast and no disruptive warm fronts inbound, positioning 52-53°F (29%) as the next likeliest outcome amid low volatility in short-range guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in NYC on March 23?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 23?
51°F or below 43%
52-53°F 29%
54-55°F 15%
56-57°F 10%
$15,546 Объем
$15,546 Объем
51°F or below
43%
52-53°F
29%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70°F or higher
<1%
51°F or below 43%
52-53°F 29%
54-55°F 15%
56-57°F 10%
$15,546 Объем
$15,546 Объем
51°F or below
43%
52-53°F
29%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
10%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 51°F or below in New York City on March 23 at 44% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum near 50-52°F under partly cloudy skies and cool northerly winds. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this outlook, showing a shallow upper trough maintaining chilly mid-50s ceilings at best, tempered by diurnal mixing limited by coastal influences and lingering cloudiness. Historical data from Central Park indicates average March 23 highs around 52°F, with recent soundings confirming a stable cool air mass over the Northeast and no disruptive warm fronts inbound, positioning 52-53°F (29%) as the next likeliest outcome amid low volatility in short-range guidance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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