Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19°C (27.5%) and 20°C (23.0%) as the highest temperature in Wellington on March 25, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime peak of 19-20°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over New Zealand. This edges out 18°C (22.0%) amid ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which show low-confidence spreads due to variable northerly flows and coastal sea breezes that could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Historical March 25 highs average 20.1°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, but today's clearer skies favor the upper end unless afternoon cloud increases. Key differentiator: southerly wind shifts below 15 km/h boost 20-21°C odds, while stronger gusts align with 18°C. Watch evening model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
19°C 27%
20°C 23%
18°C 22%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
18%
18°C
22%
19°C
27%
20°C
23%
21°C
18%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
4%
19°C 27%
20°C 23%
18°C 22%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
18%
18°C
22%
19°C
27%
20°C
23%
21°C
18%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 19°C (27.5%) and 20°C (23.0%) as the highest temperature in Wellington on March 25, driven by MetService's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime peak of 19-20°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over New Zealand. This edges out 18°C (22.0%) amid ensemble model consensus from ECMWF and GFS, which show low-confidence spreads due to variable northerly flows and coastal sea breezes that could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Historical March 25 highs average 20.1°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, but today's clearer skies favor the upper end unless afternoon cloud increases. Key differentiator: southerly wind shifts below 15 km/h boost 20-21°C odds, while stronger gusts align with 18°C. Watch evening model updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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