Trader consensus on Denver's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around the mid-80s, with 82-83°F and 84-85°F bins leading at 17.5% implied probabilities each, propelled by National Weather Service forecasts pinpointing 83°F amid a robust high-pressure ridge over the central Rockies fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Key differentiators include ensemble model nuances—GFS ensembles averaging 84°F versus ECMWF's 82°F—coupled with light southerly winds enhancing afternoon boundary-layer heating and dry soils minimizing evaporative cooling. These factors edge out warmer 92-93°F odds (14.5%) despite anomalously warm 850mb temperatures (+8-10°C), as historical March 25 records cap at 84°F and minimal convective risk caps upside potential. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Denver on March 25?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 25?
82-83°F 18%
84-85°F 18%
92-93°F 14%
94-95°F 12%
77°F or below
2%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
14%
94-95°F
12%
96°F or higher
8%
82-83°F 18%
84-85°F 18%
92-93°F 14%
94-95°F 12%
77°F or below
2%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
11%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
14%
94-95°F
12%
96°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Denver International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDEN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Denver's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around the mid-80s, with 82-83°F and 84-85°F bins leading at 17.5% implied probabilities each, propelled by National Weather Service forecasts pinpointing 83°F amid a robust high-pressure ridge over the central Rockies fostering subsidence warming and clear skies. Key differentiators include ensemble model nuances—GFS ensembles averaging 84°F versus ECMWF's 82°F—coupled with light southerly winds enhancing afternoon boundary-layer heating and dry soils minimizing evaporative cooling. These factors edge out warmer 92-93°F odds (14.5%) despite anomalously warm 850mb temperatures (+8-10°C), as historical March 25 records cap at 84°F and minimal convective risk caps upside potential. Watch tomorrow's 12z model runs for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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