Trader consensus favors a Shenzhen high of 28°C at 27.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C, reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that converge on upper 27s to low 28s Celsius for March 25, amid seasonal norms of 24-25°C but elevated by recent warm air advection from the north. Differentiating factors include forecast cloud cover variability—partial sunshine could push to 28-29°C via enhanced solar insolation, while sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea might cap at 26-27°C through evaporative cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly radar data this week will refine these tight odds, with minimal risk of 30°C+ extremes absent heat dome development.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 25?
28°C 30%
27°C 19%
26°C 16%
30°C or higher 14%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
16%
27°C
22%
28°C
28%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
14%
28°C 30%
27°C 19%
26°C 16%
30°C or higher 14%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C
16%
27°C
22%
28°C
28%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:20 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Shenzhen high of 28°C at 27.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 27°C, reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from ECMWF and GFS that converge on upper 27s to low 28s Celsius for March 25, amid seasonal norms of 24-25°C but elevated by recent warm air advection from the north. Differentiating factors include forecast cloud cover variability—partial sunshine could push to 28-29°C via enhanced solar insolation, while sea breeze incursions from the South China Sea might cap at 26-27°C through evaporative cooling. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and hourly radar data this week will refine these tight odds, with minimal risk of 30°C+ extremes absent heat dome development.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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