Traders overwhelmingly favor a high of 0°C or below in Toronto on March 25 (65% implied probability), driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast predicting a daytime maximum near -2°C under a deep Arctic air mass dominating southern Ontario. This cold outbreak, fueled by a strong upper-level trough, aligns with recent observations at Pearson International Airport, where diurnal highs have hovered below freezing amid clear skies and light winds suppressing any warmup. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for sub-zero peaks, bucking the typical late-March average of 6°C, with La Niña patterns enhancing wintry risks. Odds for 3–5°C outcomes (18–22%) reflect minor model divergences, but traders see scant upside potential before resolution via official midnight-to-midnight measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
4°C 23%
3°C 22%
2°C 19%
5°C 19%
0°C or below
3%
1°C
18%
2°C
19%
3°C
22%
4°C
23%
5°C
19%
6°C
17%
7°C
15%
8°C
13%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
4°C 23%
3°C 22%
2°C 19%
5°C 19%
0°C or below
3%
1°C
18%
2°C
19%
3°C
22%
4°C
23%
5°C
19%
6°C
17%
7°C
15%
8°C
13%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly favor a high of 0°C or below in Toronto on March 25 (65% implied probability), driven by Environment Canada's latest forecast predicting a daytime maximum near -2°C under a deep Arctic air mass dominating southern Ontario. This cold outbreak, fueled by a strong upper-level trough, aligns with recent observations at Pearson International Airport, where diurnal highs have hovered below freezing amid clear skies and light winds suppressing any warmup. Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS show consensus for sub-zero peaks, bucking the typical late-March average of 6°C, with La Niña patterns enhancing wintry risks. Odds for 3–5°C outcomes (18–22%) reflect minor model divergences, but traders see scant upside potential before resolution via official midnight-to-midnight measurements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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