Trader consensus favors 27°C at 27% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 24, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS converging on 26-28°C peaks amid persistent southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects amplifying temps by 1-2°C in this densely built metropolis, minimal cloud cover per satellite-derived predictions reducing radiative cooling, and low precipitation odds preserving diurnal heating. Historical March 24 highs average 24°C, but this year's early spring warmth—linked to fading El Niño influences—elevates baseline expectations, with upcoming 12-hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration potentially shifting odds further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
27°C 27%
26°C 20%
25°C 19%
28°C 19%
20°C or below
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
27%
28°C
19%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
12%
27°C 27%
26°C 20%
25°C 19%
28°C 19%
20°C or below
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
27%
28°C
19%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 27°C at 27% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 24, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS converging on 26-28°C peaks amid persistent southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects amplifying temps by 1-2°C in this densely built metropolis, minimal cloud cover per satellite-derived predictions reducing radiative cooling, and low precipitation odds preserving diurnal heating. Historical March 24 highs average 24°C, but this year's early spring warmth—linked to fading El Niño influences—elevates baseline expectations, with upcoming 12-hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration potentially shifting odds further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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