Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12°C (31.5% implied probability) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 24, narrowly ahead of 11°C (22.5%) and 10°C (20.0%), propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime peaks of 10-13°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and radiative warming. Key differentiators include model spread from variable afternoon cloudiness—potentially capping peaks at 11°C—and subtle warm air advection discrepancies, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance centering near 12°C against a March historical average high of 13°C. Uncertainty persists in peak-hour insolation and station microclimate effects at Esenboğa Airport, as final hourly updates could sway outcomes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 24?
12°C 32%
10°C 22%
11°C 22%
13°C 20%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
8%
10°C
22%
11°C
22%
12°C
32%
13°C
20%
14°C
14%
15°C
12%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
2%
12°C 32%
10°C 22%
11°C 22%
13°C 20%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
8%
10°C
22%
11°C
22%
12°C
32%
13°C
20%
14°C
14%
15°C
12%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 12°C (31.5% implied probability) as Ankara's highest temperature on March 24, narrowly ahead of 11°C (22.5%) and 10°C (20.0%), propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime peaks of 10-13°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and radiative warming. Key differentiators include model spread from variable afternoon cloudiness—potentially capping peaks at 11°C—and subtle warm air advection discrepancies, with Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance centering near 12°C against a March historical average high of 13°C. Uncertainty persists in peak-hour insolation and station microclimate effects at Esenboğa Airport, as final hourly updates could sway outcomes before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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