The Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast of a 27°C high on March 24 anchors trader sentiment, implying 33% odds for that outcome amid high uncertainty from divergent models and variable cloud cover. Recent dry easterly winds have sustained warmth above seasonal norms—late March averages hover around 23°C—but morning showers could cap peaks at 25-26°C by limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show splits, with sunnier scenarios pushing 28°C+ (22% odds) via enhanced insolation, while cooler outliers below 24°C reflect potential sea breeze moderation. Historical data underscores volatility, with past highs ranging 20-29°C under similar subtropical spring patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on March 24?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on March 24?
27°C 32%
26°C 21%
28°C or higher 17%
25°C 15%
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
4%
24°C
9%
25°C
15%
26°C
20%
27°C
28%
28°C or higher
22%
27°C 32%
26°C 21%
28°C or higher 17%
25°C 15%
18°C or below
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
4%
24°C
9%
25°C
15%
26°C
20%
27°C
28%
28°C or higher
22%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hong Kong Observatory's latest forecast of a 27°C high on March 24 anchors trader sentiment, implying 33% odds for that outcome amid high uncertainty from divergent models and variable cloud cover. Recent dry easterly winds have sustained warmth above seasonal norms—late March averages hover around 23°C—but morning showers could cap peaks at 25-26°C by limiting solar heating. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show splits, with sunnier scenarios pushing 28°C+ (22% odds) via enhanced insolation, while cooler outliers below 24°C reflect potential sea breeze moderation. Historical data underscores volatility, with past highs ranging 20-29°C under similar subtropical spring patterns.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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