Trader sentiment for Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, driven by divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with ECMWF leaning cooler at a 17°C median due to anticipated mid-level clouds tempering insolation, while GFS implies 18–19°C from stronger southerly flow. AEMET's latest guidance supports 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge stabilizing the Iberian Peninsula, aligning with March climatology where daily maxima average 17°C but vary by 3°C standard deviation from urban heat islands and diurnal timing. Recent 12z model updates slightly boosted warmer odds, but resolution hinges on peak afternoon heating before 5 PM local time, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
18°C 33%
19°C 33%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C
19%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
8%
18°C 33%
19°C 33%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
12%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
23%
20°C
19%
21°C
19%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, driven by divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with ECMWF leaning cooler at a 17°C median due to anticipated mid-level clouds tempering insolation, while GFS implies 18–19°C from stronger southerly flow. AEMET's latest guidance supports 17–18°C amid a high-pressure ridge stabilizing the Iberian Peninsula, aligning with March climatology where daily maxima average 17°C but vary by 3°C standard deviation from urban heat islands and diurnal timing. Recent 12z model updates slightly boosted warmer odds, but resolution hinges on peak afternoon heating before 5 PM local time, underscoring inherent forecast uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы