Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Madrid on March 23 at 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C (27.5%) and 16°C (23.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering peaks in this narrow 16-18°C band amid a mild Atlantic westerly flow bringing cloudy skies and light precipitation risks. AEMET observations confirm recent daytime highs hovering near 16°C, aligning with March climatological norms of 15-17°C, while subtle model divergences—ECMWF leaning warmer with better insolation, GFS cooler under thicker cloud cover—explain the tight odds; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution-defining clarity on boundary layer mixing and frontal timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 23?
17°C 33%
18°C 23%
16°C 22%
19°C 15%
$13,520 Объем
$13,520 Объем
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
26%
17°C
33%
18°C
32%
19°C
23%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
17°C 33%
18°C 23%
16°C 22%
19°C 15%
$13,520 Объем
$13,520 Объем
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
26%
17°C
33%
18°C
32%
19°C
23%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 17°C high in Madrid on March 23 at 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 18°C (27.5%) and 16°C (23.0%), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering peaks in this narrow 16-18°C band amid a mild Atlantic westerly flow bringing cloudy skies and light precipitation risks. AEMET observations confirm recent daytime highs hovering near 16°C, aligning with March climatological norms of 15-17°C, while subtle model divergences—ECMWF leaning warmer with better insolation, GFS cooler under thicker cloud cover—explain the tight odds; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model updates for resolution-defining clarity on boundary layer mixing and frontal timing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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