Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Ankara's highest temperature on March 23 at around 11°C, driving the market's 37.5% implied probability for that outcome and clustering trader sentiment toward 10-12°C amid a cool continental air mass over central Turkey. Ankara's inland location amplifies diurnal temperature swings in late March, with historical maxima averaging 12-14°C, but recent observations show overnight lows near 5°C and subdued solar heating under partly cloudy skies, tempering upside risks. Turkish Meteorological Service updates reinforce this, with minimal divergence in model runs; traders eye afternoon observations for final resolution as small deviations could shift odds between 10°C (20.5%) and 12°C (26.5%).
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
11°C 37%
12°C 26%
10°C 21%
9°C 6%
$40,261 Объем
$40,261 Объем
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
6%
10°C
21%
11°C
37%
12°C
26%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
2%
11°C 37%
12°C 26%
10°C 21%
9°C 6%
$40,261 Объем
$40,261 Объем
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
6%
10°C
21%
11°C
37%
12°C
26%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models pinpoint Ankara's highest temperature on March 23 at around 11°C, driving the market's 37.5% implied probability for that outcome and clustering trader sentiment toward 10-12°C amid a cool continental air mass over central Turkey. Ankara's inland location amplifies diurnal temperature swings in late March, with historical maxima averaging 12-14°C, but recent observations show overnight lows near 5°C and subdued solar heating under partly cloudy skies, tempering upside risks. Turkish Meteorological Service updates reinforce this, with minimal divergence in model runs; traders eye afternoon observations for final resolution as small deviations could shift odds between 10°C (20.5%) and 12°C (26.5%).
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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