Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a high of 86-87°F in Austin on March 24 (28% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting sunny skies and a peak near 86°F amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas. This setup features southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air, with clear conditions allowing strong daytime heating in the boundary layer. Closely trailing bins at 26% (79°F or below, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 90-91°F) reflect model ensemble spread—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 4-5°F due to uncertainties in wind timing and mixing—against March norms of 72°F, elevating all warm outcomes while lower probabilities hinge on potential frontal intrusions. Key watch: afternoon NWS updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 27%
79°F or below
26%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
27%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 27%
79°F or below
26%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
26%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
27%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a high of 86-87°F in Austin on March 24 (28% implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast predicting sunny skies and a peak near 86°F amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Texas. This setup features southerly winds advecting warm Gulf air, with clear conditions allowing strong daytime heating in the boundary layer. Closely trailing bins at 26% (79°F or below, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 90-91°F) reflect model ensemble spread—GFS and ECMWF runs vary by 4-5°F due to uncertainties in wind timing and mixing—against March norms of 72°F, elevating all warm outcomes while lower probabilities hinge on potential frontal intrusions. Key watch: afternoon NWS updates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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