Tight race among 16-20°C outcomes stems from ensemble forecast divergence for Milan's March 24 high, with 19°C at 27.5% implied probability leading on the latest ECMWF deterministic run peaking at 19.2°C amid a robust Azores high ridge funneling mild southerly flow. GFS ensembles tilt slightly cooler toward 17-18°C (24.5% and 21.0%), factoring potential convective clouds disrupting peak insolation after noon, while 16°C (19.5%) and 20°C (17.8%) capture model spread uncertainty. Historical late-March normals near 15°C provide baseline, but recent +2-3°C anomalies from Atlantic warmth bolster trader consensus for above-average highs, pending ARPA Lombardia observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Milan on March 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 24?
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
18°C 23%
22°C or higher 13.6%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
17%
16°C
25%
17°C
22%
18°C
25%
19°C
28%
20°C
18%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
14%
19°C 31%
17°C 23%
18°C 23%
22°C or higher 13.6%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
17%
16°C
25%
17°C
22%
18°C
25%
19°C
28%
20°C
18%
21°C
4%
22°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight race among 16-20°C outcomes stems from ensemble forecast divergence for Milan's March 24 high, with 19°C at 27.5% implied probability leading on the latest ECMWF deterministic run peaking at 19.2°C amid a robust Azores high ridge funneling mild southerly flow. GFS ensembles tilt slightly cooler toward 17-18°C (24.5% and 21.0%), factoring potential convective clouds disrupting peak insolation after noon, while 16°C (19.5%) and 20°C (17.8%) capture model spread uncertainty. Historical late-March normals near 15°C provide baseline, but recent +2-3°C anomalies from Atlantic warmth bolster trader consensus for above-average highs, pending ARPA Lombardia observations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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