Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models peg Miami's March 24 high temperature in the 82-85°F range, fueling the tight race between 82-83°F (28.5% implied probability) and 84-85°F (25.5%) as top outcomes. This reflects a daytime sea breeze tempering heat from persistent southerly winds and above-normal sea surface temperatures around Florida, which boost low-level humidity and convective potential but cap peaks below 86°F per GFS runs. Historical March 24 highs average 82°F at Miami International Airport, with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°F; recent model updates show slight cooling trends from increased cloud cover probabilities (30-40%), differentiating lower bins like 80-81°F while sidelining extremes above 88°F. Traders eye afternoon NWS updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 26%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 26%
80-81°F 23%
78-79°F 13%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models peg Miami's March 24 high temperature in the 82-85°F range, fueling the tight race between 82-83°F (28.5% implied probability) and 84-85°F (25.5%) as top outcomes. This reflects a daytime sea breeze tempering heat from persistent southerly winds and above-normal sea surface temperatures around Florida, which boost low-level humidity and convective potential but cap peaks below 86°F per GFS runs. Historical March 24 highs average 82°F at Miami International Airport, with urban heat island effects adding 1-2°F; recent model updates show slight cooling trends from increased cloud cover probabilities (30-40%), differentiating lower bins like 80-81°F while sidelining extremes above 88°F. Traders eye afternoon NWS updates for resolution shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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