Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Seoul high of 13°C at 36% implied probability, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast pinning the peak temperature there amid a weak high-pressure ridge stabilizing mild spring conditions. Differentiating the tight race with 12°C (27.5%) and 14°C (20%) are subtle model divergences: ECMWF ensembles lean slightly cooler at 12-13°C due to lingering northerly winds and partial cloud cover, while GFS runs hint warmer toward 14°C if diurnal heating intensifies under clearer skies. Historical late-March highs average 12-14°C, but current upper-air patterns limit extremes, with official observations from Gimpo Airport set to resolve the market precisely at 1800 KST. Uncertainty persists in the 1-2°C spread as final model updates loom.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 37%
12°C 28%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
28%
13°C
37%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
8%
13°C 37%
12°C 28%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
3%
11°C
7%
12°C
28%
13°C
37%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Seoul high of 13°C at 36% implied probability, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's latest forecast pinning the peak temperature there amid a weak high-pressure ridge stabilizing mild spring conditions. Differentiating the tight race with 12°C (27.5%) and 14°C (20%) are subtle model divergences: ECMWF ensembles lean slightly cooler at 12-13°C due to lingering northerly winds and partial cloud cover, while GFS runs hint warmer toward 14°C if diurnal heating intensifies under clearer skies. Historical late-March highs average 12-14°C, but current upper-air patterns limit extremes, with official observations from Gimpo Airport set to resolve the market precisely at 1800 KST. Uncertainty persists in the 1-2°C spread as final model updates loom.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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