Trader sentiment heavily favors milder temperatures in Buenos Aires on March 24, with 42% implied probability for 23°C or below, driven by the latest forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23-25°C amid a stable high-pressure system and light southerly winds. March autumn norms average 24°C, but recent cooling trends from polar air outbreaks have lowered baseline expectations, as seen in the past week's observed highs dipping to 22°C. Model ensembles show low spread, with minimal risk of convective heating pushing above 26°C (under 20% combined odds), though diurnal variability could nudge outcomes toward 24-25°C if cloud cover clears. Traders eye SMN's 6 PM update for final tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
23°C or below 48%
24°C 21%
25°C 14%
26°C 10%
23°C or below
43%
24°C
21%
25°C
24%
26°C
20%
27°C
8%
28°C
9%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
23°C or below 48%
24°C 21%
25°C 14%
26°C 10%
23°C or below
43%
24°C
21%
25°C
24%
26°C
20%
27°C
8%
28°C
9%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors milder temperatures in Buenos Aires on March 24, with 42% implied probability for 23°C or below, driven by the latest forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international models like GFS and ECMWF projecting daytime highs of 23-25°C amid a stable high-pressure system and light southerly winds. March autumn norms average 24°C, but recent cooling trends from polar air outbreaks have lowered baseline expectations, as seen in the past week's observed highs dipping to 22°C. Model ensembles show low spread, with minimal risk of convective heating pushing above 26°C (under 20% combined odds), though diurnal variability could nudge outcomes toward 24-25°C if cloud cover clears. Traders eye SMN's 6 PM update for final tweaks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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