Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 82-83°F (31%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering in the low 80s amid a building subtropical high-pressure ridge over Florida. National Weather Service outlooks project southerly winds and ample sunshine boosting highs above the March climatological average of 81°F, with urban heat island effects in Miami adding 1-2°F. Lower odds for 84-85°F (21%) reflect risks of stronger sea breezes capping peaks, while cooler outcomes like 80-81°F (17%) or below hinge on unexpected frontal intrusions or increased cloud cover—key variables amid model spread showing 3-5°F uncertainty. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift implied probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Майами 23 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Майами 23 марта?
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
$11,175 Объем
$11,175 Объем
71°F или ниже
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
21%
86–87°F
6%
88-89°F
4%
90°F или выше
1%
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 21%
80-81°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
$11,175 Объем
$11,175 Объем
71°F или ниже
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
21%
86–87°F
6%
88-89°F
4%
90°F или выше
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 82-83°F (31%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models clustering in the low 80s amid a building subtropical high-pressure ridge over Florida. National Weather Service outlooks project southerly winds and ample sunshine boosting highs above the March climatological average of 81°F, with urban heat island effects in Miami adding 1-2°F. Lower odds for 84-85°F (21%) reflect risks of stronger sea breezes capping peaks, while cooler outcomes like 80-81°F (17%) or below hinge on unexpected frontal intrusions or increased cloud cover—key variables amid model spread showing 3-5°F uncertainty. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift implied probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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