Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 15°C high in London on March 24 (30.5% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office forecast ensembles projecting a peak of 14-16°C under mild Atlantic airflow with partial cloud cover. This edges out 14°C (22%) due to expected breaks in cloud allowing greater insolation—solar heating—amid southerly winds, while 16°C (14%) faces headwinds from model spread indicating possible thicker overcast or light showers capping temperatures. Historical March 24 averages hover near 12°C, but 2024's warmer baseline and high-pressure ridge remnants boost odds for the upper teens; uncertainty lingers in diurnal temperature range and urban heat effects at monitoring stations like Heathrow. Key watch: 0600 UTC model updates refining peak-hour conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in London on March 24?
Highest temperature in London on March 24?
15°C 31%
14°C 22%
16°C 11%
13°C 11%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
9%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
22%
15°C
31%
16°C
19%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 31%
14°C 22%
16°C 11%
13°C 11%
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
9%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
22%
15°C
31%
16°C
19%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 15°C high in London on March 24 (30.5% implied probability), driven by the latest Met Office forecast ensembles projecting a peak of 14-16°C under mild Atlantic airflow with partial cloud cover. This edges out 14°C (22%) due to expected breaks in cloud allowing greater insolation—solar heating—amid southerly winds, while 16°C (14%) faces headwinds from model spread indicating possible thicker overcast or light showers capping temperatures. Historical March 24 averages hover near 12°C, but 2024's warmer baseline and high-pressure ridge remnants boost odds for the upper teens; uncertainty lingers in diurnal temperature range and urban heat effects at monitoring stations like Heathrow. Key watch: 0600 UTC model updates refining peak-hour conditions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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