Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Buenos Aires high of 29°C (28.5% implied probability) or 30°C (22%), reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 29-31°C amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge stifling cooler Atlantic inflows. Recent model runs released this morning nudged peaks slightly higher from yesterday's 28-30°C guidance, driven by clear skies and radiative heating over urban heat islands like Ezeiza station, the market's resolution site. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea-breeze timing—earlier onset caps at 29°C, delays push to 31°C—and minor cloud variability, with historical March 20 averages at 28°C but current +1.5°C anomalies from lingering summer warmth boosting upper-end odds. Final SMN updates expected soon could shift sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 20?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 20?
29°C 26%
30°C 23%
31°C 19%
28°C 15%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
9%
27°C
10%
28°C
15%
29°C
26%
30°C
23%
31°C
19%
32°C
10%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
4%
29°C 26%
30°C 23%
31°C 19%
28°C 15%
24°C or below
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
9%
27°C
10%
28°C
15%
29°C
26%
30°C
23%
31°C
19%
32°C
10%
33°C
6%
34°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Buenos Aires high of 29°C (28.5% implied probability) or 30°C (22%), reflecting the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting 29-31°C amid a subtropical high-pressure ridge stifling cooler Atlantic inflows. Recent model runs released this morning nudged peaks slightly higher from yesterday's 28-30°C guidance, driven by clear skies and radiative heating over urban heat islands like Ezeiza station, the market's resolution site. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea-breeze timing—earlier onset caps at 29°C, delays push to 31°C—and minor cloud variability, with historical March 20 averages at 28°C but current +1.5°C anomalies from lingering summer warmth boosting upper-end odds. Final SMN updates expected soon could shift sentiment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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